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Research · S&P 500 · Financials
ACGL · Arch Capital Group
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence
49/55
high value score11 of 12 checks scored11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (ROIC) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.
Earnings & returns
EPS Trend
4/5Diluted EPS: $3.80 (2022), $11.62 (2023), $11.19 (2024), $11.60 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.
ROE Trend
5/5ROE (net income / common equity): 11.9% (2022), 25.1% (2023), 21.4% (2024), 18.6% (2025). Median 20.0%, lowest 11.9%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.
ROIC
Not scoredROIC not available: the 10-K financial data filed with the SEC has no standard operating income figure (or pre-tax income and interest expense), total assets and current liabilities for the same fiscal year.
Profit Margins
5/5Net margin of 24.4%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 38.8%, operating margin 26.6%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
5/5Net cash: total debt $4.29B, total cash $4.46B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.
Free Cash Flow
4/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $3.77B (2022), $5.70B (2023), $6.62B (2024), $6.13B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.
Retained Earnings
5/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $15.89B (2022), $20.30B (2023), $22.69B (2024), $27.05B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Valuation models
Graham IV
3/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $12.78 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $106.22 (EPS CAGR -0.1% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $101.27; price is 4.7% below the model value.
DCF Value
5/5FCF/share = $12.616, stage 1 growth = 20.0% (revenue CAGR 20.5% capped at 20%) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $82.52, PV of terminal value = $286.82, DCF value = $369.34. Current price $101.27; price is 72.6% below the model value.
Margin of Safety
4/5Graham value $106.22 (price is 4.7% below the model value); DCF value $369.34 (price is 72.6% below the model value).
Price-to-Book
4/5P/B of 1.48; the framework scores 1.0-1.5 as 4.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Not available: the 10-K financial data has no standard figures for operating income, total assets and current liabilities in the same years, as is common for banks, insurers and REITs.
Gross margin, each year
Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
The worldwide insurance markets are highly competitive. We compete with major U.S. and non-U.S. insurers and reinsurers, some of which have greater financial, marketing and management resources and longer-term relationships with insureds and brokers than us. We compete primarily on the basis of overall financial strength, ratings assigned by independent rating agencies, geographic scope of business, strength of client relationships, premiums charged, contract terms and conditions, products and services offered, speed of claims payment, reputation, employee experience and qualifications, and local presence. See “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Industry, Business and Operations—“We operate in a highly competitive environment, and we may not be able to compete successfully in our industry.
The opening of the company’s “COMPETITION” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
5/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $4.53B paid out against $22.21B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $2.73B to $2.73B, up 0.1% (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.37B to 0.36B, down 3.1% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $12.78, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -0.1%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
IV = $106.22
Current price $101.27 vs Graham value $106.22 — price is 4.7% below the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $12.616
Stage 1 growth = 20.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Stage 1 g capped at 20.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was 20.5%)
Y1: $15.139 → PV $13.763
Y2: $18.167 → PV $15.014
Y3: $21.801 → PV $16.379
Y4: $26.161 → PV $17.868
Y5: $31.393 → PV $19.493
Stage 1 PV sum = $82.52
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $461.93
PV of terminal value = $286.82
DCF value = $369.34
Current price $101.27 vs DCF value $369.34 — price is 72.6% below the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $101.27. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
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