ADP Value Scorecard - Automatic Data Processing

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

45/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

5/5

Diluted EPS: $7.00 (2022), $8.21 (2023), $9.10 (2024), $9.98 (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 97.2% (2023), 82.5% (2024), 65.9% (2025), 73.2% (2026). Median 77.8%, lowest 65.9%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 47.0%: earnings before interest and taxes of $6.19B (pre-tax income $5.73B plus interest expense $459.30M; the 10-K's financial data has no standard operating income figure) divided by $13.17B of capital (total assets $63.19B minus current liabilities $50.02B), fiscal year to Jun 30, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 20.1%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 48.7%, operating margin 23.5%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

3/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.91; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $5.51B, total cash $4.23B).

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $3.64B (2023), $3.59B (2024), $4.39B (2025), $4.78B (2026). It rose every year but one and ended above 2023; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $22.12B (2023), $23.62B (2024), $25.24B (2025), $26.97B (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

3/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $10.94 x (8.5 + 2 x 10.3) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $311.28. Current price $288.90; price is 7.2% below the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $13.232, stage 1 growth = 6.9% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $60.77, PV of terminal value = $168.76, DCF value = $229.53. Current price $288.90; price is 25.9% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $311.28 (price is 7.2% below the model value); DCF value $229.53 (price is 25.9% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 19.06; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 10 of 10 years (2017-2026); lowest 28.3%, highest 57.2%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 41.4% and 46.4% over 10 years (a range of 5.0 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Aug 5, 2026

The industries in which we operate are highly competitive and we are one of the largest providers of HCM solutions in the world. HCM Solutions, Global Solutions and HRO Solutions (other than PEO) compete with other business outsourcing companies, companies providing ERP services, providers of cloud-based HCM solutions and financial institutions. Our PEO business competes with other PEOs providing similar services,

The opening of the company’s “COMPETITION” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $14.83B paid out against $16.40B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $3.34B to $5.27B, up 57.9%, 0.8x EBITDA (pass: at most 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.41B to 0.40B, down 3.5% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $10.94, g = 10.3%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $311.28
    Current price $288.90 vs Graham value $311.28 — price is 7.2% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $13.232
    Stage 1 growth = 6.9% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $14.145 → PV $12.859
      Y2: $15.121 → PV $12.496
      Y3: $16.164 → PV $12.144
      Y4: $17.279 → PV $11.802
      Y5: $18.471 → PV $11.469
    Stage 1 PV sum = $60.77
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $271.79
    PV of terminal value = $168.76
    DCF value = $229.53
    Current price $288.90 vs DCF value $229.53 — price is 25.9% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $288.90. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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