ADSK Value Scorecard - Autodesk

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

48/60

high value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

5/5

Diluted EPS: $3.78 (2023), $4.19 (2024), $5.12 (2025), $5.23 (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 71.9% (2023), 48.8% (2024), 42.4% (2025), 36.9% (2026). Median 45.6%, lowest 36.9%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 23.7%: operating income of $1.58B divided by $6.66B of capital (total assets $12.47B minus current liabilities $5.81B), fiscal year to Jan 31, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 21.1%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 92.5%, operating margin 29.2%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Net cash: total debt $3.70B, total cash $4.16B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $2.02B (2023), $1.25B (2024), $1.50B (2025), $2.38B (2026). It rose every year but one and ended above 2023; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

1/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$2.00B (2023), -$1.71B (2024), -$1.33B (2025), -$1.43B (2026). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.

Valuation models

Graham IV

3/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $7.71 x (8.5 + 2 x 11.7) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $240.48. Current price $239.90; price is 0.2% below the model value.

DCF Value

5/5

FCF/share = $15.108, stage 1 growth = 14.5% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $85.33, PV of terminal value = $271.64, DCF value = $356.97. Current price $239.90; price is 32.8% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

4/5

Graham value $240.48 (price is 0.2% below the model value); DCF value $356.97 (price is 32.8% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 14.82; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 5 of 10 years (2017-2026); lowest -25.6%, highest 23.8%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 83.2% and 91.1% over 10 years (a range of 7.9 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Mar 3, 2026

The markets for our products are highly competitive, are subject to rapid change, and can have complex interdependencies between many of the larger businesses. We strive to increase our competitive separation by investing in research and development, allowing us to bring new products to market and create exciting new versions of existing products that offer compelling efficiencies for our customers. We also compete

The opening of the company’s “COMPETITION” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $4.15B paid out against $7.16B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $2.67B to $2.73B, up 2.6%, 1.4x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.21B to 0.21B, down 1.4% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $7.71, g = 11.7%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $240.48
    Current price $239.90 vs Graham value $240.48 — price is 0.2% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $15.108
    Stage 1 growth = 14.5% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $17.298 → PV $15.726
      Y2: $19.807 → PV $16.369
      Y3: $22.678 → PV $17.039
      Y4: $25.967 → PV $17.736
      Y5: $29.732 → PV $18.461
    Stage 1 PV sum = $85.33
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $437.49
    PV of terminal value = $271.64
    DCF value = $356.97
    Current price $239.90 vs DCF value $356.97 — price is 32.8% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $239.90. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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