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Research · S&P 500 · Utilities

AES · AES Corporation

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

Price · last 3 months · daily close

AES price

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Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence

31/55
low-moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored

11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (Margin of Safety) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: -$0.82 (2022), $0.35 (2023), $2.36 (2024), $1.26 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

4/5

ROE (net income / common equity): -34.1% (2022), 15.1% (2023), 46.1% (2024), 22.2% (2025). Median 18.6%, lowest -34.1%; the framework scores a median 15-20% as 4.

ROIC

1/5

ROIC of 3.4%: earnings before interest and taxes of $1.48B (pre-tax income $75.00M plus interest expense $1.41B; the 10-K's financial data has no standard operating income figure) divided by $43.28B of capital (total assets $51.77B minus current liabilities $8.49B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 14.3%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 20.3%, operating margin 18.7%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

1/5

Debt-to-equity of 2.57; the framework scores above 2.5 as 1 (total debt $32.94B, total cash $1.85B).

Free Cash Flow

1/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): -$1.84B (2022), -$4.69B (2023), -$4.64B (2024), -$1.62B (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$1.64B (2022), -$1.39B (2023), $293.00M (2024), $641.00M (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $2.67 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $126.62 (EPS CAGR 89.7% capped at 20%). Current price $14.95; price is 88.2% below the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

Free cash flow per share is -$4.33; a two-stage DCF cannot be computed from negative free cash flow.

Margin of Safety

Not scored

Needs both a Graham value and a DCF value. Graham value $126.62 (price is 88.2% below the model value); DCF value N/A (not comparable).

Price-to-Book

3/5

P/B of 2.16; the framework scores 1.5-3.0 as 3.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 1.9%, highest 6.1%.

2016: 2.5%, 2017: 2.4%, 2018: 1.9%, 2019: 2.7%, 2020: 2.9%, 2021: 5.5%, 2022: 3.8%, 2023: 4.1%, 2024: 6.1%, 2025: 3.4%

Gross margin, each year

Between 18.1% and 27.9% over 10 years (a range of 9.8 points).

2016: 23.2%, 2017: 23.4%, 2018: 24.0%, 2019: 23.1%, 2020: 27.9%, 2021: 24.3%, 2022: 20.2%, 2023: 19.8%, 2024: 18.8%, 2025: 18.1%

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026

For our businesses with medium- or long-term contracts, there is limited market competition impacting prices during the term of the contract. For short-term sales, plant dispatch and the price of electricity are determined by market competition and local dispatch and reliability rules.

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

2/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $1.85B paid out against -$12.79B of free cash flow (fail: free cash flow was negative); total debt $23.50B to $29.90B, up 27.2%, 10.2x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.67B to 0.71B, up 6.5% (fail: up more than 2%). 1 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 2.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $2.67, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 89.7%)
    IV = $126.62
    Current price $14.95 vs Graham value $126.62 — price is 88.2% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share -$4.332 — a two-stage DCF cannot be computed from negative free cash flow.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $14.95. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.