ALB Value Scorecard - Albemarle Corporation

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

32/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

1/5

Diluted EPS: $22.84 (2022), $13.36 (2023), -$11.20 (2024), -$5.76 (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.

ROE Trend

1/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 33.7% (2022), 16.7% (2023), -17.0% (2024), -9.3% (2025). Median 3.7%, lowest -17.0%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.

ROIC

1/5

ROIC of -2.5%: operating income of -$367.08M divided by $14.58B of capital (total assets $16.37B minus current liabilities $1.80B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.

Profit Margins

2/5

Net margin of 3.8%; the framework scores 0-5% as 2; gross margin 24.0%, operating margin 27.7%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.19; the framework scores below 0.3 as 5 (total debt $2.00B, total cash $1.63B).

Free Cash Flow

3/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $646.20M (2022), -$827.96M (2023), -$992.65M (2024), $692.47M (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

Retained Earnings

2/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $5.60B (2022), $6.99B (2023), $5.48B (2024), $4.61B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $0.27 x (8.5 + 2 x 5.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $4.88 (EPS CAGR unavailable, default 5% applied). Current price $95.48; price is 1855.0% above the model value.

DCF Value

5/5

FCF/share = $11.307, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -26.9% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $42.86, PV of terminal value = $103.31, DCF value = $146.17. Current price $95.48; price is 34.7% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $4.88 (price is 1855.0% above the model value); DCF value $146.17 (price is 34.7% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

4/5

P/B of 1.40; the framework scores 1.0-1.5 as 4.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 1 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -12.1%, highest 19.4%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 1.2% and 42.0% over 10 years (a range of 40.8 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026

The global lithium market is highly competitive and growing very rapidly. It is characterized by aggressive expansion and entry from existing and new players, including automotive OEMs, commodity traders, junior miners, and large, well-capitalized diversified miners. Producers are primarily located in the Americas, Africa, Asia and Australia. Major competitors in lithium compounds include Sociedad Quimica y Minera

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $1.04B paid out against -$481.94M of free cash flow (fail: free cash flow was negative); total debt $3.32B to $3.30B, down 0.6%, 10.5x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.12B to 0.12B, up 0.5% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $0.27, g = 5.0%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $4.88
    Current price $95.48 vs Graham value $4.88 — price is 1855.0% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $11.307
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -26.9%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $11.307 → PV $10.280
      Y2: $11.307 → PV $9.345
      Y3: $11.307 → PV $8.495
      Y4: $11.307 → PV $7.723
      Y5: $11.307 → PV $7.021
    Stage 1 PV sum = $42.86
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $166.38
    PV of terminal value = $103.31
    DCF value = $146.17
    Current price $95.48 vs DCF value $146.17 — price is 34.7% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $95.48. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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