AMD Value Scorecard - Advanced Micro Devices

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

34/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: $0.84 (2022), $0.53 (2023), $1.00 (2024), $2.65 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

1/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 2.4% (2022), 1.5% (2023), 2.9% (2024), 6.9% (2025). Median 2.6%, lowest 1.5%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.

ROIC

2/5

ROIC of 5.5%: operating income of $3.69B divided by $67.47B of capital (total assets $76.93B minus current liabilities $9.46B), fiscal year to Dec 27, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 5-10% as 2.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 15.6%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 55.7%, operating margin 17.2%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Net cash: total debt $4.28B, total cash $13.11B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $3.12B (2022), $1.12B (2023), $2.40B (2024), $6.74B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$131.00M (2022), $723.00M (2023), $2.36B (2024), $6.70B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $3.92 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $185.90 (EPS CAGR 123.6% capped at 20%). Current price $528.75; price is 184.4% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $5.416, stage 1 growth = 20.0% (revenue CAGR 23.6% capped at 20%) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $35.42, PV of terminal value = $123.13, DCF value = $158.55. Current price $528.75; price is 233.5% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

1/5

Graham value $185.90 (price is 184.4% above the model value); DCF value $158.55 (price is 233.5% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 12.84; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 4 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -18.9%, highest 44.6%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 23.2% and 49.5% over 10 years (a range of 26.3 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 4, 2026

The markets in which our products are sold are highly competitive and rapidly evolving and delivering the latest and best products to market on time is critical to revenue growth. The competitiveness of our products depends on a number of factors including, performance, total cost of ownership, timely product introductions, product quality and reliability, product features and capabilities, energy efficiency

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $9.03B paid out against $13.38B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $2.86B to $3.85B, up 34.4%, 0.5x EBITDA (pass: at most 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 1.61B to 1.63B, up 1.1% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $3.92, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 123.6%)
    IV = $185.90
    Current price $528.75 vs Graham value $185.90 — price is 184.4% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $5.416
    Stage 1 growth = 20.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g capped at 20.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was 23.6%)
      Y1: $6.499 → PV $5.908
      Y2: $7.799 → PV $6.445
      Y3: $9.359 → PV $7.031
      Y4: $11.231 → PV $7.671
      Y5: $13.477 → PV $8.368
    Stage 1 PV sum = $35.42
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $198.30
    PV of terminal value = $123.13
    DCF value = $158.55
    Current price $528.75 vs DCF value $158.55 — price is 233.5% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $528.75. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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