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Research · S&P 500 · Financials

AON · Aon plc

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

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Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence

37/55
moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored

11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (ROE Trend) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: $12.14 (2022), $12.51 (2023), $12.49 (2024), $17.02 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

Not scored

Shareholder equity is negative in 2022, 2023, so ROE has no meaningful value and is not scored.

ROIC

4/5

ROIC of 15.8%: operating income of $4.34B divided by $27.56B of capital (total assets $50.78B minus current liabilities $23.23B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 15-20% as 4.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 22.3%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 48.2%, operating margin 23.5%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

2/5

Debt-to-equity of 1.64; the framework scores 1.5-2.5 as 2 (total debt $15.87B, total cash $1.10B).

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $3.02B (2022), $3.18B (2023), $2.82B (2024), $3.22B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

1/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$2.77B (2022), -$3.40B (2023), -$2.31B (2024), -$245.00M (2025). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $18.14 x (8.5 + 2 x 16.6) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $739.63. Current price $292.55; price is 60.4% below the model value.

DCF Value

4/5

FCF/share = $15.042, stage 1 growth = 13.3% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $82.26, PV of terminal value = $256.59, DCF value = $338.85. Current price $292.55; price is 13.7% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

4/5

Graham value $739.63 (price is 60.4% below the model value); DCF value $338.85 (price is 13.7% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 6.46; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 6 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 8.0%, highest 30.8%.

2016: 12.8%, 2017: 8.0%, 2018: 11.8%, 2019: 15.7%, 2020: 18.9%, 2021: 16.3%, 2022: 29.6%, 2023: 30.8%, 2024: 14.8%, 2025: 15.8%

Gross margin, each year

Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026

Our business operates in a highly competitive and fragmented environment. We compete with numerous other global insurance brokers and consulting companies, including, among others, Marsh McLennan, Willis Towers Watson, Arthur J Gallagher & Company, and Lockton Companies, Inc., as well as numerous other global, regional, and local firms in almost every area of our business. We also compete with insurance and

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

3/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $10.05B paid out against $12.24B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $11.68B to $16.07B, up 37.6%, 2.5x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.21B to 0.21B, up 4.4% (fail: up more than 2%). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $18.14, g = 16.6%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $739.63
    Current price $292.55 vs Graham value $739.63 — price is 60.4% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $15.042
    Stage 1 growth = 13.3% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $17.043 → PV $15.494
      Y2: $19.310 → PV $15.958
      Y3: $21.878 → PV $16.437
      Y4: $24.788 → PV $16.930
      Y5: $28.084 → PV $17.438
    Stage 1 PV sum = $82.26
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $413.24
    PV of terminal value = $256.59
    DCF value = $338.85
    Current price $292.55 vs DCF value $338.85 — price is 13.7% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $292.55. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.