APP Value Scorecard - AppLovin

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

52/60

high value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

5/5

Diluted EPS: -$0.52 (2022), $0.98 (2023), $4.53 (2024), $9.75 (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): -10.1% (2022), 28.3% (2023), 144.7% (2024), 156.1% (2025). Median 86.5%, lowest -10.1%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 70.1%: operating income of $4.15B divided by $5.93B of capital (total assets $7.26B minus current liabilities $1.33B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 64.6%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 88.5%, operating margin 77.7%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

3/5

Debt-to-equity of 1.11; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $3.52B, total cash $3.05B).

Free Cash Flow

5/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $412.11M (2022), $997.61M (2023), $2.07B (2024), $3.94B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$1.17B (2022), -$812.99M (2023), $599.20M (2024), $1.74B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $13.01 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $616.96 (EPS CAGR 215.4% capped at 20%). Current price $266.13; price is 56.9% below the model value.

DCF Value

4/5

FCF/share = $10.445, stage 1 growth = 20.0% (revenue CAGR 72.5% capped at 20%) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $68.32, PV of terminal value = $237.46, DCF value = $305.78. Current price $266.13; price is 13.0% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

4/5

Graham value $616.96 (price is 56.9% below the model value); DCF value $305.78 (price is 13.0% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 28.21; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 3 of 6 years (2020-2025); lowest -4.0%, highest 70.1%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 55.4% and 87.9% over 7 years (a range of 32.5 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026

We operate in a fragmented advertising ecosystem composed of divisions of large, well-established companies as well as privately-held companies. The large companies in our advertising and mobile app ecosystems may play multiple different roles given the breadth of their businesses. Advertisers typically engage with several advertising platforms and networks to purchase advertisements on mobile apps, devices, and on

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $4.67B paid out against $7.43B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $3.28B to $3.54B, up 8.1%, 0.8x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.37B to 0.34B, down 9.5% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $13.01, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 215.4%)
    IV = $616.96
    Current price $266.13 vs Graham value $616.96 — price is 56.9% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $10.445
    Stage 1 growth = 20.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g capped at 20.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was 72.5%)
      Y1: $12.534 → PV $11.395
      Y2: $15.041 → PV $12.431
      Y3: $18.049 → PV $13.561
      Y4: $21.659 → PV $14.793
      Y5: $25.991 → PV $16.138
    Stage 1 PV sum = $68.32
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $382.44
    PV of terminal value = $237.46
    DCF value = $305.78
    Current price $266.13 vs DCF value $305.78 — price is 13.0% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $266.13. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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