BALL Value Scorecard - Ball Corporation

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

41/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

3/5

Diluted EPS: $2.25 (2022), $2.23 (2023), $13.00 (2024), $3.30 (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

ROE Trend

4/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 20.8% (2022), 18.8% (2023), 68.4% (2024), 16.8% (2025). Median 19.8%, lowest 16.8%; the framework scores a median 15-20% as 4.

ROIC

3/5

ROIC of 10.3%: earnings before interest and taxes of $1.44B (pre-tax income $1.13B plus interest expense $314.00M; the 10-K's financial data has no standard operating income figure) divided by $14.04B of capital (total assets $19.52B minus current liabilities $5.49B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.

Profit Margins

3/5

Net margin of 6.6%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 18.6%, operating margin 9.2%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

3/5

Debt-to-equity of 1.31; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $7.58B, total cash $500.00M).

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): -$1.35B (2022), $818.00M (2023), -$369.00M (2024), $788.00M (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $7.31B (2022), $7.76B (2023), $11.53B (2024), $12.22B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $3.47 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $164.56 (EPS CAGR 21.6% capped at 20%). Current price $63.20; price is 61.6% below the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $1.427, stage 1 growth = 4.5% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $6.13, PV of terminal value = $16.24, DCF value = $22.38. Current price $63.20; price is 182.4% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $164.56 (price is 61.6% below the model value); DCF value $22.38 (price is 182.4% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

3/5

P/B of 2.91; the framework scores 1.5-3.0 as 3.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 3.5%, highest 10.3%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 14.8% and 16.7% over 8 years (a range of 1.9 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026

The latest 10-K has no section headed “Competition” that could be quoted. Open the filing to read how the company describes its markets.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $4.62B paid out against -$113.00M of free cash flow (fail: free cash flow was negative); total debt $8.95B to $7.01B, down 21.6%, 3.4x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.31B to 0.27B, down 15.5% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $3.47, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 21.6%)
    IV = $164.56
    Current price $63.20 vs Graham value $164.56 — price is 61.6% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $1.427
    Stage 1 growth = 4.5% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $1.491 → PV $1.355
      Y2: $1.558 → PV $1.288
      Y3: $1.628 → PV $1.223
      Y4: $1.701 → PV $1.162
      Y5: $1.778 → PV $1.104
    Stage 1 PV sum = $6.13
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $26.16
    PV of terminal value = $16.24
    DCF value = $22.38
    Current price $63.20 vs DCF value $22.38 — price is 182.4% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $63.20. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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