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Research · S&P 500 · Consumer Staples
CASY · Casey's
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence
41/60
moderate value scoreEarnings & returns
EPS Trend
5/5Diluted EPS: $11.91 (2023), $13.43 (2024), $14.64 (2025), $19.16 (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
ROE Trend
4/5ROE (net income / common equity): 16.8% (2023), 16.6% (2024), 15.6% (2025), 18.1% (2026). Median 16.7%, lowest 15.6%; the framework scores a median 15-20% as 4.
ROIC
3/5ROIC of 10.2%: earnings before interest and taxes of $319.06M (pre-tax income $263.40M plus interest expense $55.66M; the 10-K's financial data has no standard operating income figure) divided by $3.14B of capital (total assets $3.73B minus current liabilities $590.93M), fiscal year to Apr 30, 2019, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.
Profit Margins
2/5Net margin of 4.1%; the framework scores 0-5% as 2; gross margin 23.8%, operating margin 6.5%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
4/5Debt-to-equity of 0.70; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $2.89B, total cash $524.06M).
Free Cash Flow
4/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $405.38M (2023), $370.95M (2024), $584.63M (2025), $721.62M (2026). It rose every year but one and ended above 2023; the framework scores that as 4.
Retained Earnings
5/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $2.55B (2023), $2.99B (2024), $3.46B (2025), $3.95B (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Valuation models
Graham IV
4/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $20.76 x (8.5 + 2 x 19.4) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $960.13. Current price $689.22; price is 28.2% below the model value.
DCF Value
1/5FCF/share = $13.618, stage 1 growth = 8.7% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $65.71, PV of terminal value = $188.81, DCF value = $254.52. Current price $689.22; price is 170.8% above the model value.
Margin of Safety
3/5Graham value $960.13 (price is 28.2% below the model value); DCF value $254.52 (price is 170.8% above the model value).
Price-to-Book
1/5P/B of 6.23; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 3 of 10 years (2010-2019); lowest 9.0%, highest 16.8%.
Gross margin, each year
Between 20.9% and 23.4% over 4 years (a range of 2.5 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Jun 22, 2026
Our business is highly competitive. Food, including prepared foods, and non-food items similar or identical to those sold by the Company, are generally available from various competitors in the communities served by Casey’s and by certain online retailers. We believe our stores located in smaller towns compete principally with other local grocery and convenience stores, similar retail outlets, including "dollar" stores, and, to a lesser extent, prepared food outlets, restaurants, and expanded fuel stations offering a more limited selection of grocery and food items for sale. Stores located in more heavily populated communities may compete with local and national grocery and drug store chains, quick service restaurants, expanded fuel stations, supermarkets, discount food stores, and traditional convenience stores. In addition to our inside store products, the fuel business is also highly competitive. The Company competes on the basis of price, location, and convenience of our fuel products. Similar to inside, stores compete with larger store chains with expanded fuel offerings and increased buying power in more heavily populated communities.
The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
5/5Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $580.12M paid out against $2.08B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $1.67B to $2.91B, up 73.6%, 2.0x EBITDA (pass: at most 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.04B to 0.04B, down 1.0% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $20.76, g = 19.4%, Y = 4.5
IV = $960.13
Current price $689.22 vs Graham value $960.13 — price is 28.2% below the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $13.618
Stage 1 growth = 8.7% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Y1: $14.802 → PV $13.457
Y2: $16.090 → PV $13.298
Y3: $17.490 → PV $13.140
Y4: $19.012 → PV $12.985
Y5: $20.666 → PV $12.832
Stage 1 PV sum = $65.71
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $304.08
PV of terminal value = $188.81
DCF value = $254.52
Current price $689.22 vs DCF value $254.52 — price is 170.8% above the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $689.22. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice
In the news
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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.