CF Value Scorecard - CF Industries

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

44/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

2/5

Diluted EPS: $16.38 (2022), $7.87 (2023), $6.74 (2024), $8.97 (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 66.2% (2022), 26.7% (2023), 24.4% (2024), 30.1% (2025). Median 28.4%, lowest 24.4%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

4/5

ROIC of 17.4%: operating income of $2.30B divided by $13.20B of capital (total assets $14.09B minus current liabilities $887.00M), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 15-20% as 4.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 27.1%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 42.5%, operating margin 49.3%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

4/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.41; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $3.61B, total cash $2.48B).

Free Cash Flow

2/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $3.39B (2022), $1.03B (2023), $1.75B (2024), $1.80B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

Retained Earnings

3/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $3.87B (2022), $4.54B (2023), $4.01B (2024), $3.87B (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $13.48 x (8.5 + 2 x 6.8) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $291.29. Current price $120.85; price is 58.5% below the model value.

DCF Value

3/5

FCF/share = $8.436, stage 1 growth = 3.4% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $35.17, PV of terminal value = $91.10, DCF value = $126.27. Current price $120.85; price is 4.3% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

4/5

Graham value $291.29 (price is 58.5% below the model value); DCF value $126.27 (price is 4.3% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

2/5

P/B of 3.19; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 4 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 1.0%, highest 43.8%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 10.5% and 52.4% over 10 years (a range of 41.9 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026

Our markets are global and intensely competitive, based primarily on delivered price and, to a lesser extent, on low-carbon attributes, reliability, customer service and product quality. During the peak demand periods, product availability and delivery time also play a role in the buying decisions of customers. Our primary competitors with North American operations include Nutrien Ltd., Koch Fertilizer LLC, LSB

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $6.19B paid out against $7.98B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $3.23B to $3.64B, up 12.7%, 1.1x EBITDA (pass: at most 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.20B to 0.15B, down 21.5% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $13.48, g = 6.8%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $291.29
    Current price $120.85 vs Graham value $291.29 — price is 58.5% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $8.436
    Stage 1 growth = 3.4% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $8.723 → PV $7.930
      Y2: $9.020 → PV $7.454
      Y3: $9.327 → PV $7.007
      Y4: $9.644 → PV $6.587
      Y5: $9.971 → PV $6.192
    Stage 1 PV sum = $35.17
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $146.72
    PV of terminal value = $91.10
    DCF value = $126.27
    Current price $120.85 vs DCF value $126.27 — price is 4.3% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $120.85. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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