CI Value Scorecard - Cigna

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

45/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

3/5

Diluted EPS: $21.30 (2022), $17.39 (2023), $12.12 (2024), $22.18 (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

ROE Trend

3/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 15.0% (2022), 11.2% (2023), 8.4% (2024), 14.3% (2025). Median 12.7%, lowest 8.4%; the framework scores a median 10-15% as 3.

ROIC

2/5

ROIC of 9.1%: operating income of $9.20B divided by $101.58B of capital (total assets $157.92B minus current liabilities $56.34B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 5-10% as 2.

Profit Margins

2/5

Net margin of 2.3%; the framework scores 0-5% as 2; gross margin 9.1%, operating margin 4.0%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

4/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.74; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $31.88B, total cash $7.26B).

Free Cash Flow

3/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $7.36B (2022), $10.24B (2023), $8.96B (2024), $8.39B (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $37.94B (2022), $41.65B (2023), $43.52B (2024), $47.87B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $24.19 x (8.5 + 2 x 12.9) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $811.28. Current price $302.30; price is 62.7% below the model value.

DCF Value

5/5

FCF/share = $30.200, stage 1 growth = 18.8% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $191.35, PV of terminal value = $652.93, DCF value = $844.28. Current price $302.30; price is 64.2% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

5/5

Graham value $811.28 (price is 62.7% below the model value); DCF value $844.28 (price is 64.2% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

3/5

P/B of 1.87; the framework scores 1.5-3.0 as 3.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 0 of 9 years (2017-2025); lowest 3.4%, highest 9.6%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 21.8% and 94.1% over 10 years (a range of 72.3 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

The primary competitive factors in the industry include the ability to negotiate with retail pharmacies to ensure retail pharmacy networks meet the needs of clients and customers; provide home delivery and specialty pharmacy services; negotiate with drug manufacturers to lower the cost of prescription drugs; manage cost and quality of specialty drugs; specialize in claim adjudication and benefit administration;

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $26.56B paid out against $34.95B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $31.09B to $31.46B, up 1.2%, 2.6x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.30B to 0.26B, down 11.8% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $24.19, g = 12.9%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $811.28
    Current price $302.30 vs Graham value $811.28 — price is 62.7% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $30.200
    Stage 1 growth = 18.8% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $35.878 → PV $32.616
      Y2: $42.623 → PV $35.226
      Y3: $50.636 → PV $38.044
      Y4: $60.156 → PV $41.087
      Y5: $71.465 → PV $44.374
    Stage 1 PV sum = $191.35
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $1,051.55
    PV of terminal value = $652.93
    DCF value = $844.28
    Current price $302.30 vs DCF value $844.28 — price is 64.2% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $302.30. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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