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ValeriusBeta - Not investment advice
Research · S&P 500 · Consumer Staples
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Price · last 3 months · daily close
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Daily closing prices via yfinance. Quotes are delayed. Past prices are not a guarantee of future results.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
Earnings & returns
Diluted EPS: $3.73 (2022), $1.20 (2023), $2.25 (2024), $4.81 (2026). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.
ROE (net income / common equity): 67.7% (2023), 85.4% (2024), 252.3% (2025), 652.2% (2026). Median 168.9%, lowest 67.7%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.
ROIC of 32.0%: earnings before interest and taxes of $1.17B (pre-tax income $1.08B plus interest expense $88.00M; the 10-K's financial data has no standard operating income figure) divided by $3.64B of capital (total assets $5.56B minus current liabilities $1.92B), fiscal year to Jun 30, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.
Net margin of 8.7%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 42.3%, operating margin 12.9%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-equity of 22.21; the framework scores above 2.5 as 1 (total debt $5.60B, total cash $143.00M).
Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $930.00M (2023), $483.00M (2024), $761.00M (2025), $405.00M (2026). The latest figure is half the 2023 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.
Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $1.05B (2022), $583.00M (2023), $250.00M (2024), $432.00M (2025). The latest figure is half the 2022 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.
Valuation models
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $4.81 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $228.10 (EPS CAGR 100.2% capped at 20%). Current price $87.09; price is 61.8% below the model value.
FCF/share = $0.913, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -2.7% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $3.46, PV of terminal value = $8.34, DCF value = $11.80. Current price $87.09; price is 638.2% above the model value.
Graham value $228.10 (price is 61.8% below the model value); DCF value $11.80 (price is 638.2% above the model value).
P/B of 117.06; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.
Business quality
A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 8 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 8.1%, highest 40.6%.
Gross margin, each year
Between 35.8% and 45.6% over 10 years (a range of 9.8 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Aug 7, 2026
The markets for consumer products are highly competitive. The Company’s products compete with other nationally advertised brands and with “private label” brands within each category. Competition comes from similar and alternative products, some of which are produced and marketed by major multinational or national companies having financial resources greater than those of the Company. In addition, the Company faces competition from retailers, including club stores, grocery stores, drugstores, dollar stores, mass merchandisers, e-commerce retailers and subscription services, as well as from competitors in its B2B channels, including healthcare and other institutional markets. The Company’s products generally compete on the basis of product performance, brand reputation and recognition, image and price. The Company also competes through product innovation, digital capabilities, data and analytics, and marketing effectiveness, including across e-commerce and other emerging retail platforms. A newly introduced consumer product (whether improved or newly developed) usually encounters intense competition requiring substantial expenditures for advertising, sales promotion and trade merchandising support. If a product gains consumer acceptance, it typically requires continued advertising and promotional support and ongoing product innovation to maintain its relative market position.
The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $2.97B paid out against $2.58B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $2.92B to $5.52B, up 88.8%, 4.7x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.12B to 0.12B, down 2.3% (pass). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.
Filings
Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $4.81, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 100.2%)
IV = $228.10
Current price $87.09 vs Graham value $228.10 — price is 61.8% below the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $0.913
Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -2.7%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
Y1: $0.913 → PV $0.830
Y2: $0.913 → PV $0.754
Y3: $0.913 → PV $0.686
Y4: $0.913 → PV $0.623
Y5: $0.913 → PV $0.567
Stage 1 PV sum = $3.46
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $13.43
PV of terminal value = $8.34
DCF value = $11.80
Current price $87.09 vs DCF value $11.80 — price is 638.2% above the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $87.09. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice
The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.