CME Value Scorecard - CME Group

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

44/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

5/5

Diluted EPS: $7.40 (2022), $8.86 (2023), $9.67 (2024), $11.16 (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

ROE Trend

3/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 9.9% (2022), 11.9% (2023), 13.1% (2024), 14.0% (2025). Median 12.5%, lowest 9.9%; the framework scores a median 10-15% as 3.

ROIC

3/5

ROIC of 11.1%: operating income of $4.23B divided by $38.13B of capital (total assets $198.42B minus current liabilities $160.30B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 63.4%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 100.0%, operating margin 65.0%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.15; the framework scores below 0.3 as 5 (total debt $3.87B, total cash $2.28B).

Free Cash Flow

5/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $2.97B (2022), $3.38B (2023), $3.60B (2024), $4.19B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Retained Earnings

3/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $4.75B (2022), $4.46B (2023), $4.19B (2024), $6.43B (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

Valuation models

Graham IV

4/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $11.79 x (8.5 + 2 x 12.2) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $379.27. Current price $293.87; price is 22.5% below the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $8.090, stage 1 growth = 8.1% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $38.40, PV of terminal value = $109.11, DCF value = $147.51. Current price $293.87; price is 99.2% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $379.27 (price is 22.5% below the model value); DCF value $147.51 (price is 99.2% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

2/5

P/B of 3.98; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 7.1%, highest 11.2%.

Gross margin, each year

Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

The industry in which we operate is highly competitive and has seen multiple new entrants over time, and we expect competition to continue to intensify and become more global, especially in light of changes in the financial services industry driven by regulatory reforms such as the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank), European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR), EMIR 3.0,

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $13.65B paid out against $14.13B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $3.44B to $3.42B, down 0.5%, 0.6x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.36B to 0.36B, unchanged (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $11.79, g = 12.2%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $379.27
    Current price $293.87 vs Graham value $379.27 — price is 22.5% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $8.090
    Stage 1 growth = 8.1% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $8.745 → PV $7.950
      Y2: $9.454 → PV $7.813
      Y3: $10.220 → PV $7.678
      Y4: $11.047 → PV $7.545
      Y5: $11.942 → PV $7.415
    Stage 1 PV sum = $38.40
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $175.72
    PV of terminal value = $109.11
    DCF value = $147.51
    Current price $293.87 vs DCF value $147.51 — price is 99.2% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $293.87. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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