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Research · S&P 500 · Health Care
CNC · Centene Corporation
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence
28/55
low-moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (Margin of Safety) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.
Earnings & returns
EPS Trend
1/5Diluted EPS: $2.07 (2022), $4.95 (2023), $6.31 (2024), -$13.53 (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.
ROE Trend
2/5ROE (net income / common equity): 5.0% (2022), 10.5% (2023), 12.5% (2024), -33.4% (2025). Median 7.7%, lowest -33.4%; the framework scores a median 5-10% as 2.
ROIC
1/5ROIC of -19.0%: operating income of -$7.62B divided by $40.05B of capital (total assets $76.75B minus current liabilities $36.70B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.
Profit Margins
1/5Net margin of -2.8%; the framework scores a negative net margin as 1; gross margin 11.4%, operating margin 3.8%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
5/5Net cash: total debt $16.10B, total cash $27.06B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.
Free Cash Flow
2/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $5.26B (2022), $7.25B (2023), -$490.00M (2024), $4.32B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.
Retained Earnings
2/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $9.34B (2022), $12.04B (2023), $15.35B (2024), $8.67B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.
Valuation models
Graham IV
1/5Trailing EPS is -$10.44; the Graham formula requires positive trailing EPS, so no intrinsic value is computed.
DCF Value
5/5FCF/share = $19.514, stage 1 growth = 12.5% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $104.43, PV of terminal value = $321.27, DCF value = $425.70. Current price $69.16; price is 83.8% below the model value.
Margin of Safety
Not scoredNeeds both a Graham value and a DCF value. Graham value N/A (not comparable); DCF value $425.70 (price is 83.8% below the model value).
Price-to-Book
3/5P/B of 1.51; the framework scores 1.5-3.0 as 3.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -19.0%, highest 10.9%.
Gross margin, each year
Between 8.1% and 96.8% over 10 years (a range of 88.7 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
Our approach is based on the following key competitive strengths: • Focus and Experience . Centene was established as a Medicaid company, anchored around long-lasting, trusted relationships, with a continual focus on low-income populations. Since our founding more than 40 years ago, we have forged new paths developing innovative solutions and addressing the evolving needs of our members, earning Centene an important seat at the table and a powerful voice to shape the conversation at the state and federal level. As a result of these efforts, we are the nation's largest Medicaid and Marketplace insurer as well as the largest stand-alone PDP provider, based on the most recent publicly available membership data. Additionally, our Medicare Advantage business includes one of the highest concentrations of D-SNP members among our peers, aligned with our focus on low-income, complex populations. As states increasingly move to integrate care for individuals who are dually eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare, our expertise uniquely positions us to serve this population of 12 million beneficiaries nationwide. We are positioned at the nexus of affordability and choice, ready to meet the needs of consumers who increasingly seek innovative products like ICHRAs. • Local Approach . Our local approach to delivering healthcare enables us to meet members and providers in the communities where they are to facilitate member access to high-quality, culturally sensitive healthcare services.
The opening of the company’s “OUR COMPETITIVE STRENGTHS” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
5/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $8.33B paid out against $16.34B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $21.33B to $18.16B, down 14.9% (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.55B to 0.49B, down 10.7% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
Trailing EPS -$10.44 — formula requires positive trailing EPS, no value computed.
DCF:
FCF/share = $19.514
Stage 1 growth = 12.5% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Y1: $21.953 → PV $19.957
Y2: $24.697 → PV $20.411
Y3: $27.784 → PV $20.875
Y4: $31.257 → PV $21.349
Y5: $35.164 → PV $21.834
Stage 1 PV sum = $104.43
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $517.42
PV of terminal value = $321.27
DCF value = $425.70
Current price $69.16 vs DCF value $425.70 — price is 83.8% below the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $69.16. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice
In the news
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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.