DAL Value Scorecard - Delta Air Lines

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

40/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: $2.06 (2022), $7.17 (2023), $5.33 (2024), $7.66 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 20.0% (2022), 41.5% (2023), 22.6% (2024), 24.0% (2025). Median 23.3%, lowest 20.0%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

3/5

ROIC of 10.8%: operating income of $5.82B divided by $53.69B of capital (total assets $81.32B minus current liabilities $27.62B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.

Profit Margins

2/5

Net margin of 4.6%; the framework scores 0-5% as 2; gross margin 17.9%, operating margin 7.2%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

3/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.89; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $19.94B, total cash $3.79B).

Free Cash Flow

5/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): -$3.00M (2022), $1.14B (2023), $2.88B (2024), $3.84B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $1.17B (2022), $5.65B (2023), $8.78B (2024), $13.34B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

3/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $5.01 x (8.5 + 2 x 3.4) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $74.95. Current price $75.37; price is 0.6% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $3.788, stage 1 growth = 4.5% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $16.28, PV of terminal value = $43.13, DCF value = $59.41. Current price $75.37; price is 26.9% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

2/5

Graham value $74.95 (price is 0.6% above the model value); DCF value $59.41 (price is 26.9% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

3/5

P/B of 2.19; the framework scores 1.5-3.0 as 3.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 2 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -22.2%, highest 19.1%.

Gross margin, each year

Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026

The airline industry is highly competitive, marked by significant competition with respect to routes, fares, schedules (both timing and frequency), operational reliability, services, products, customer service and loyalty programs. Over the last 20 years, the industry has evolved significantly both domestically and internationally. Consolidation, international alliances, immunized joint ventures and subsidized

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in 3 of 4 years (fail); $889.00M paid out against $7.87B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $30.61B to $20.27B, down 33.8%, 2.2x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.64B to 0.65B, up 1.9% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $5.01, g = 3.4%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $74.95
    Current price $75.37 vs Graham value $74.95 — price is 0.6% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $3.788
    Stage 1 growth = 4.5% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $3.958 → PV $3.599
      Y2: $4.137 → PV $3.419
      Y3: $4.323 → PV $3.248
      Y4: $4.517 → PV $3.085
      Y5: $4.720 → PV $2.931
    Stage 1 PV sum = $16.28
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $69.46
    PV of terminal value = $43.13
    DCF value = $59.41
    Current price $75.37 vs DCF value $59.41 — price is 26.9% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $75.37. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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