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Research · S&P 500 · Consumer Discretionary

DHI · D. R. Horton

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

Price · last 3 months · daily close

DHI price

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Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence

35/55
moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored

11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (ROIC) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

2/5

Diluted EPS: $16.51 (2022), $13.82 (2023), $14.34 (2024), $11.57 (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

ROE Trend

4/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 30.2% (2022), 20.9% (2023), 18.8% (2024), 14.8% (2025). Median 19.9%, lowest 14.8%; the framework scores a median 15-20% as 4.

ROIC

Not scored

ROIC not available: the 10-K financial data filed with the SEC has no standard operating income figure (or pre-tax income and interest expense), total assets and current liabilities for the same fiscal year.

Profit Margins

3/5

Net margin of 9.2%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 21.3%, operating margin 13.0%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.29; the framework scores below 0.3 as 5 (total debt $7.19B, total cash $2.08B).

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $413.60M (2022), $4.16B (2023), $2.02B (2024), $3.28B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $19.19B (2022), $23.59B (2023), $27.95B (2024), $31.04B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $10.49 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $87.18 (EPS CAGR -8.5% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $139.39; price is 59.9% above the model value.

DCF Value

2/5

FCF/share = $8.630, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -1.7% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $32.72, PV of terminal value = $78.85, DCF value = $111.57. Current price $139.39; price is 24.9% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

2/5

Graham value $87.18 (price is 59.9% above the model value); DCF value $111.57 (price is 24.9% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

3/5

P/B of 1.64; the framework scores 1.5-3.0 as 3.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Not available: the 10-K financial data has no standard figures for operating income, total assets and current liabilities in the same years, as is common for banks, insurers and REITs.

Gross margin, each year

Between 21.6% and 31.4% over 10 years (a range of 9.8 points).

2016: 21.8%, 2017: 21.6%, 2018: 22.8%, 2019: 22.0%, 2020: 24.3%, 2021: 28.4%, 2022: 31.4%, 2023: 26.4%, 2024: 25.9%, 2025: 23.7%

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Nov 19, 2025

We operate as a provider of residential housing in both the for sale and rental markets, which are highly competitive. We compete not only for homebuyers and renters, but also for desirable properties, raw materials, skilled labor and financing. We compete with local, regional and national homebuilding and rental companies and also with existing home sales and rental properties. We compete based on price, location, quality and design of our homes and on mortgage financing terms.

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $10.19B paid out against $9.88B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $6.11B to $6.03B, down 1.4%, 1.3x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.34B to 0.29B, down 14.4% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $10.49, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
    g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -8.5%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
    IV = $87.18
    Current price $139.39 vs Graham value $87.18 — price is 59.9% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $8.630
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -1.7%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $8.630 → PV $7.846
      Y2: $8.630 → PV $7.132
      Y3: $8.630 → PV $6.484
      Y4: $8.630 → PV $5.895
      Y5: $8.630 → PV $5.359
    Stage 1 PV sum = $32.72
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $126.99
    PV of terminal value = $78.85
    DCF value = $111.57
    Current price $139.39 vs DCF value $111.57 — price is 24.9% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $139.39. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.