DLTR Value Scorecard - Dollar Tree

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

32/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

2/5

Diluted EPS: $7.21 (2023), -$4.55 (2024), -$14.05 (2025), $6.22 (2026). It ended at or below 2023; the framework scores that as 2.

ROE Trend

1/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 18.5% (2023), -13.7% (2024), -76.2% (2025), 34.2% (2026). Median 2.4%, lowest -76.2%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.

ROIC

4/5

ROIC of 16.1%: operating income of $1.65B divided by $10.24B of capital (total assets $13.47B minus current liabilities $3.23B), fiscal year to Jan 31, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 15-20% as 4.

Profit Margins

3/5

Net margin of 8.0%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 37.2%, operating margin 6.2%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

2/5

Debt-to-equity of 2.24; the framework scores 1.5-2.5 as 2 (total debt $7.67B, total cash $1.06B).

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $971.10M (2023), $1.49B (2024), $1.56B (2025), $1.40B (2026). It rose every year but one and ended above 2023; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

1/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $8.12B (2023), $7.12B (2024), $3.94B (2025), $3.80B (2026). The latest figure is half the 2023 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.

Valuation models

Graham IV

4/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $8.21 x (8.5 + 2 x 5.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $148.51 (EPS CAGR unavailable, default 5% applied). Current price $124.18; price is 16.4% below the model value.

DCF Value

2/5

FCF/share = $5.594, stage 1 growth = 7.6% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $26.19, PV of terminal value = $73.71, DCF value = $99.91. Current price $124.18; price is 24.3% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $148.51 (price is 16.4% below the model value); DCF value $99.91 (price is 24.3% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 6.80; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 1 of 10 years (2017-2026); lowest -8.2%, highest 16.1%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 29.4% and 37.5% over 10 years (a range of 8.1 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Mar 16, 2026

We operate in the value retail sector, which is currently and in the future expected to continue to be highly competitive with respect to price, store location, merchandise quality, product assortment and presentation, shopping experience, and customer service, including merchandise delivery and checkout options. Our competitors include dollar stores, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, online retailers, discount

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $3.10B paid out against $5.42B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $10.13B to $7.06B, down 30.3%, 3.0x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.22B to 0.20B, down 10.3% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $8.21, g = 5.0%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $148.51
    Current price $124.18 vs Graham value $148.51 — price is 16.4% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $5.594
    Stage 1 growth = 7.6% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $6.019 → PV $5.472
      Y2: $6.476 → PV $5.352
      Y3: $6.969 → PV $5.236
      Y4: $7.498 → PV $5.121
      Y5: $8.068 → PV $5.010
    Stage 1 PV sum = $26.19
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $118.72
    PV of terminal value = $73.71
    DCF value = $99.91
    Current price $124.18 vs DCF value $99.91 — price is 24.3% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $124.18. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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