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Research · S&P 500 · Materials

DOW · Dow Inc.

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

Price · last 3 months · daily close

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Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence

19/55
low value score11 of 12 checks scored

11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (Margin of Safety) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

1/5

Diluted EPS: $6.28 (2022), $0.82 (2023), $1.57 (2024), -$3.70 (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.

ROE Trend

1/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 22.0% (2022), 3.1% (2023), 6.4% (2024), -16.5% (2025). Median 4.7%, lowest -16.5%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.

ROIC

1/5

ROIC of -3.3%: earnings before interest and taxes of -$1.65B (pre-tax income -$2.51B plus interest expense $865.00M; the 10-K's financial data has no standard operating income figure) divided by $49.35B of capital (total assets $58.54B minus current liabilities $9.18B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.

Profit Margins

1/5

Net margin of -3.1%; the framework scores a negative net margin as 1; gross margin 9.8%, operating margin 11.6%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

3/5

Debt-to-equity of 1.12; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $19.44B, total cash $4.24B).

Free Cash Flow

1/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $5.42B (2022), $2.72B (2023), -$151.00M (2024), -$1.45B (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.

Retained Earnings

2/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $23.18B (2022), $21.77B (2023), $20.91B (2024), $16.78B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

Trailing EPS is -$1.84; the Graham formula requires positive trailing EPS, so no intrinsic value is computed.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $0.329, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -5.4% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $1.25, PV of terminal value = $3.01, DCF value = $4.25. Current price $29.93; price is 603.8% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

Not scored

Needs both a Graham value and a DCF value. Graham value N/A (not comparable); DCF value $4.25 (price is 603.8% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

4/5

P/B of 1.36; the framework scores 1.0-1.5 as 4.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 1 of 8 years (2018-2025); lowest -3.3%, highest 17.8%.

2018: 7.1%, 2019: -0.6%, 2020: 5.8%, 2021: 17.8%, 2022: 13.7%, 2023: 2.9%, 2024: 5.1%, 2025: -3.3%

Gross margin, each year

Between 6.3% and 19.6% over 8 years (a range of 13.3 points).

2018: 17.2%, 2019: 14.7%, 2020: 13.5%, 2021: 19.6%, 2022: 15.1%, 2023: 10.9%, 2024: 10.7%, 2025: 6.3%

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 3, 2026

The latest 10-K has no section headed “Competition” that could be quoted. Open the filing to read how the company describes its markets.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

3/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $10.88B paid out against $6.54B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $16.71B to $19.60B, up 17.3%, 16.5x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.70B to 0.72B, up 1.8% (pass). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    Trailing EPS -$1.84 — formula requires positive trailing EPS, no value computed.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $0.329
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -5.4%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $0.329 → PV $0.299
      Y2: $0.329 → PV $0.272
      Y3: $0.329 → PV $0.247
      Y4: $0.329 → PV $0.225
      Y5: $0.329 → PV $0.204
    Stage 1 PV sum = $1.25
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $4.84
    PV of terminal value = $3.01
    DCF value = $4.25
    Current price $29.93 vs DCF value $4.25 — price is 603.8% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $29.93. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.