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Research · S&P 500 · Consumer Staples
EL · Estée Lauder Companies
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence
25/60
low-moderate value scoreEarnings & returns
EPS Trend
1/5Diluted EPS: $2.79 (2023), $1.08 (2024), -$3.15 (2025), $0.50 (2026). The latest figure is half the 2023 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.
ROE Trend
2/5ROE (net income / common equity): 18.0% (2023), 7.3% (2024), -29.3% (2025), 4.8% (2026). Median 6.1%, lowest -29.3%; the framework scores a median 5-10% as 2.
ROIC
2/5ROIC of 5.8%: operating income of $780.00M divided by $13.53B of capital (total assets $19.76B minus current liabilities $6.23B), fiscal year to Jun 30, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 5-10% as 2.
Profit Margins
2/5Net margin of 1.2%; the framework scores 0-5% as 2; gross margin 75.5%, operating margin 7.0%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
2/5Debt-to-equity of 2.43; the framework scores 1.5-2.5 as 2 (total debt $9.25B, total cash $3.50B).
Free Cash Flow
4/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): -$1.56B (2023), $1.44B (2024), $670.00M (2025), $1.32B (2026). It rose every year but one and ended above 2023; the framework scores that as 4.
Retained Earnings
2/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $13.99B (2023), $13.43B (2024), $11.67B (2025), $11.34B (2026). It ended at or below 2023; the framework scores that as 2.
Valuation models
Graham IV
1/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $0.50 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $4.16 (EPS CAGR -32.0% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $104.54; price is 2415.7% above the model value.
DCF Value
2/5FCF/share = $7.312, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -1.8% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $27.72, PV of terminal value = $66.81, DCF value = $94.53. Current price $104.54; price is 10.6% above the model value.
Margin of Safety
2/5Graham value $4.16 (price is 2415.7% above the model value); DCF value $94.53 (price is 10.6% above the model value).
Price-to-Book
1/5P/B of 9.94; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 5 of 10 years (2017-2026); lowest -5.4%, highest 27.0%.
Gross margin, each year
Between 71.3% and 79.4% over 10 years (a range of 8.1 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Aug 19, 2026
There is significant competition within each market where our skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products are sold. Brand recognition, product quality and effectiveness, distribution channels, accessibility, and price point are some of the factors that impact consumers’ choices among competing products and brands. There continues to be interest and awareness from our customers and consumers in responsibly-sourced ingredients and environmentally sustainable products, and we believe we are well-positioned to benefit from these preferences due to our social impact and sustainability efforts. Marketing, merchandising, in-store and online experiences and demonstrations, and new product innovations also have an impact on consumers’ purchasing decisions. We compete against a number of global and local companies. Some of our competitors are large, well-known, multinational manufacturers and marketers of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products, most of which market and sell their products under multiple brand names. Our competitors include L’Oreal S.A.; Unilever PLC; Procter & Gamble Co.; LVMH Moët Hennessey Louis Vuitton SE; Chanel Limited; Beiersdorf AG; Shiseido Company, Limited; Coty Inc.; and Puig Brands, S.A. We also face competition from a number of independent brands (“Indie Brands”), some of which are backed by private-equity investors, as well as some retailers that have their own beauty brands.
The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
4/5Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $3.41B paid out against $1.87B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $10.17B to $9.25B, down 9.1%, 5.6x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.36B to 0.36B, up 1.2% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $0.50, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -32.0%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
IV = $4.16
Current price $104.54 vs Graham value $4.16 — price is 2415.7% above the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $7.312
Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -1.8%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
Y1: $7.312 → PV $6.648
Y2: $7.312 → PV $6.043
Y3: $7.312 → PV $5.494
Y4: $7.312 → PV $4.994
Y5: $7.312 → PV $4.540
Stage 1 PV sum = $27.72
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $107.60
PV of terminal value = $66.81
DCF value = $94.53
Current price $104.54 vs DCF value $94.53 — price is 10.6% above the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $104.54. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
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