ERIE Value Scorecard - Erie Indemnity

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

48/60

high value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: $5.71 (2022), $8.53 (2023), $11.48 (2024), $10.69 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 20.6% (2022), 26.8% (2023), 30.2% (2024), 24.5% (2025). Median 25.7%, lowest 20.6%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 29.8%: operating income of $717.18M divided by $2.41B of capital (total assets $3.36B minus current liabilities $945.59M), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 14.0%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 17.9%, operating margin 19.1%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Net cash: total debt $63.16M, total cash $305.01M. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $298.95M (2022), $288.56M (2023), $486.40M (2024), $570.97M (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $2.58B (2022), $2.80B (2023), $3.16B (2024), $3.46B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $11.03 x (8.5 + 2 x 11.9) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $348.35. Current price $243.71; price is 30.0% below the model value.

DCF Value

2/5

FCF/share = $10.418, stage 1 growth = 12.0% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $55.00, PV of terminal value = $167.75, DCF value = $222.75. Current price $243.71; price is 9.4% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $348.35 (price is 30.0% below the model value); DCF value $222.75 (price is 9.4% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 5.17; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 10 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 19.7%, highest 32.4%.

Gross margin, each year

Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026

Our primary function as attorney-in-fact is to perform policy issuance and renewal services on behalf of the subscribers at the Exchange. We also act as attorney-in-fact on behalf of the subscribers at the Exchange, as well as the service provider for the Exchange's insurance subsidiaries, with respect to all administrative services. There are a limited number of companies that provide services under a reciprocal

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $920.23M paid out against $1.64B of free cash flow (pass); total debt not available; shares outstanding 0.05B to 0.05B, unchanged (pass). 3 of 3 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $11.03, g = 11.9%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $348.35
    Current price $243.71 vs Graham value $348.35 — price is 30.0% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $10.418
    Stage 1 growth = 12.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $11.668 → PV $10.608
      Y2: $13.069 → PV $10.801
      Y3: $14.637 → PV $10.997
      Y4: $16.393 → PV $11.197
      Y5: $18.360 → PV $11.400
    Stage 1 PV sum = $55.00
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $270.16
    PV of terminal value = $167.75
    DCF value = $222.75
    Current price $243.71 vs DCF value $222.75 — price is 9.4% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $243.71. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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