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Research · S&P 500 · Consumer Discretionary

EXPE · Expedia Group

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

Price · last 3 months · daily close

EXPE price

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Daily closing prices via yfinance. Quotes are delayed. Past prices are not a guarantee of future results.

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

54/60
high value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

5/5

Diluted EPS: $2.17 (2022), $5.31 (2023), $8.95 (2024), $9.81 (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 15.4% (2022), 52.0% (2023), 79.3% (2024), 100.8% (2025). Median 65.6%, lowest 15.4%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 24.0%: operating income of $1.87B divided by $7.79B of capital (total assets $24.45B minus current liabilities $16.66B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 13.0%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 90.4%, operating margin 19.0%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Net cash: total debt $5.69B, total cash $7.13B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $2.78B (2022), $1.84B (2023), $2.33B (2024), $3.11B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$1.41B (2022), -$632.00M (2023), $602.00M (2024), $1.70B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $16.01 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $759.23 (EPS CAGR 35.9% capped at 20%). Current price $288.95; price is 61.9% below the model value.

DCF Value

5/5

FCF/share = $29.996, stage 1 growth = 7.1% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $138.52, PV of terminal value = $386.17, DCF value = $524.70. Current price $288.95; price is 44.9% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

5/5

Graham value $759.23 (price is 61.9% below the model value); DCF value $524.70 (price is 44.9% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 28.68; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 1 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -20.5%, highest 24.0%.

2016: 4.8%, 2017: 5.9%, 2018: 7.2%, 2019: 8.4%, 2020: -20.5%, 2021: 1.5%, 2022: 10.1%, 2023: 10.5%, 2024: 15.0%, 2025: 24.0%

Gross margin, each year

Between 81.8% and 82.5% over 4 years (a range of 0.7 points).

2016: 81.8%, 2017: 82.5%, 2018: 82.5%, 2019: 82.1%

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026

Our brands compete in rapidly evolving and intensely competitive markets. We believe international markets represent especially large opportunities for Expedia Group and those of our competitors that wish to expand their brands and businesses to achieve global scale. We also believe that Expedia Group is one of only a few companies that are focused on building a truly global, travel marketplace. Our competition,

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $6.71B paid out against $10.06B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $6.55B to $6.42B, down 2.1%, 2.3x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.15B to 0.12B, down 20.1% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $16.01, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 35.9%)
    IV = $759.23
    Current price $288.95 vs Graham value $759.23 — price is 61.9% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $29.996
    Stage 1 growth = 7.1% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $32.125 → PV $29.205
      Y2: $34.406 → PV $28.435
      Y3: $36.849 → PV $27.685
      Y4: $39.465 → PV $26.955
      Y5: $42.267 → PV $26.245
    Stage 1 PV sum = $138.52
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $621.93
    PV of terminal value = $386.17
    DCF value = $524.70
    Current price $288.95 vs DCF value $524.70 — price is 44.9% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $288.95. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.