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Research · S&P 500 · Consumer Discretionary
F · Ford Motor Company
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence
22/55
low-moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (Margin of Safety) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.
Earnings & returns
EPS Trend
1/5Diluted EPS: -$0.49 (2022), $1.08 (2023), $1.46 (2024), -$2.06 (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.
ROE Trend
1/5ROE (net income / common equity): -4.6% (2022), 10.2% (2023), 13.1% (2024), -22.8% (2025). Median 2.8%, lowest -22.8%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.
ROIC
1/5ROIC of -5.3%: operating income of -$9.17B divided by $174.27B of capital (total assets $289.16B minus current liabilities $114.89B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.
Profit Margins
1/5Net margin of -3.9%; the framework scores a negative net margin as 1; gross margin 7.1%, operating margin 1.9%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
1/5Debt-to-equity of 4.57; the framework scores above 2.5 as 1 (total debt $163.30B, total cash $22.12B).
Free Cash Flow
5/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): -$13.00M (2022), $6.68B (2023), $6.74B (2024), $12.47B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Retained Earnings
2/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $31.75B (2022), $31.03B (2023), $33.74B (2024), $22.51B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.
Valuation models
Graham IV
1/5Trailing EPS is -$1.88; the Graham formula requires positive trailing EPS, so no intrinsic value is computed.
DCF Value
1/5Free cash flow per share is -$2.03; a two-stage DCF cannot be computed from negative free cash flow.
Margin of Safety
Not scoredNeeds both a Graham value and a DCF value. Graham value N/A (not comparable); DCF value N/A (not comparable).
Price-to-Book
4/5P/B of 1.39; the framework scores 1.0-1.5 as 4.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -5.3%, highest 5.2%.
Gross margin, each year
Between 6.8% and 16.9% over 10 years (a range of 10.1 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026
The worldwide automotive industry consists of many producers, with no single dominant producer. Certain manufacturers, however, account for the major percentage of total sales within particular countries, especially their countries of origin. Seasonality. We manage our vehicle production schedule based on a number of factors, including retail sales (i.e., units sold by our dealerships to their customers at retail) and dealer stock levels (i.e., the number of units held in inventory by our dealerships for sale to their customers). Historically, we have experienced some seasonal fluctuation in the business, with production in many markets tending to be higher in the first half of the year to meet demand in the spring and summer (typically the strongest sales months of the year); however, that may not be the case in a particular year depending on the circumstances, e.g., if we have a higher number of vehicle launches (particularly for our higher volume vehicles) in the first half of the year, we would expect production in the second half of the year to be higher.
The opening of the company’s “Competitive Position” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
4/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $14.36B paid out against $25.88B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $140.47B to $165.74B, up 18.0%, 45.6x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 4.00B to 3.99B, down 0.3% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
Trailing EPS -$1.88 — formula requires positive trailing EPS, no value computed.
DCF:
FCF/share -$2.027 — a two-stage DCF cannot be computed from negative free cash flow.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $12.43. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice
In the news
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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.