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FERG price
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Research · S&P 500 · Industrials
FERG · Ferguson Enterprises
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence
39/60
moderate value scoreEarnings & returns
EPS Trend
4/5Diluted EPS: $9.12 (2023), $8.53 (2024), $9.32 (2025), $10.16 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2023; the framework scores that as 4.
ROE Trend
5/5ROE (net income / common equity): 45.5% (2022), 37.5% (2023), 30.9% (2024), 31.8% (2025). Median 34.7%, lowest 30.9%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.
ROIC
5/5ROIC of 22.3%: operating income of $2.61B divided by $11.70B of capital (total assets $17.73B minus current liabilities $6.03B), fiscal year to Jul 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.
Profit Margins
3/5Net margin of 6.3%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 30.6%, operating margin 10.2%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
3/5Debt-to-equity of 1.11; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $6.89B, total cash $437.00M).
Free Cash Flow
4/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $859.00M (2022), $2.28B (2023), $1.50B (2024), $1.60B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.
Retained Earnings
2/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $8.56B (2023), $9.59B (2024), $7.17B (2025). It ended at or below 2023; the framework scores that as 2.
Valuation models
Graham IV
4/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $10.16 x (8.5 + 2 x 9.1) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $265.24. Current price $231.61; price is 12.7% below the model value.
DCF Value
1/5FCF/share = $8.286, stage 1 growth = 1.7% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $32.94, PV of terminal value = $82.36, DCF value = $115.31. Current price $231.61; price is 100.9% above the model value. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. Calculated from the annual statements in yfinance (fiscal year to Jul 31, 2025) because yfinance's summary figure was not available.
Margin of Safety
3/5Graham value $265.24 (price is 12.7% below the model value); DCF value $115.31 (price is 100.9% above the model value).
Price-to-Book
1/5P/B of 7.23; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 3 of 3 years (2023-2025); lowest 22.3%, highest 25.2%.
Gross margin, each year
Between 30.4% and 30.7% over 4 years (a range of 0.3 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Sep 26, 2025
We believe we are well-equipped to win new market share and generate attractive returns. We have leading positions in the residential and non-residential markets based on net sales as a percentage of overall market size. For fiscal 2025, residential and non-residential markets each account for approximately half of our net sales, with net sales within these combined markets balanced between RMI (approximately two-thirds of our net sales) and new construction (approximately one-third of our net sales), based on management’s estimates. We have chosen to operate in each of these markets because we believe we can generate strong growth, solid gross and operating margins and good returns on capital. The markets we serve are highly fragmented with very few large competitors and a high number of small, local distributors, as well as mid-size regional distributors. While our market positions can be expanded through growth of our existing business, acquisitions also remain a core part of our growth strategy and we expect to focus on acquisitions that bolt-on to our existing branch network as well as acquisitions that provide further capabilities to serve our customers. We believe there is a significant opportunity for strong growth and continued consolidation within our markets. Many customer projects require a range of products and solutions and we leverage our scale and expertise across the organization for the benefit of our customers.
The opening of the company’s “Competitive conditions” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
4/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $6.56B paid out against $6.25B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $5.13B to $5.97B, up 16.3%, 2.0x EBITDA (pass: at most 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.21B to 0.19B, down 8.0% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $10.16, g = 9.1%, Y = 4.5
IV = $265.24
Current price $231.61 vs Graham value $265.24 — price is 12.7% below the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $8.286
Stage 1 growth = 1.7% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Y1: $8.427 → PV $7.661
Y2: $8.570 → PV $7.083
Y3: $8.716 → PV $6.549
Y4: $8.864 → PV $6.054
Y5: $9.015 → PV $5.598
Stage 1 PV sum = $32.94
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $132.65
PV of terminal value = $82.36
DCF value = $115.31
Current price $231.61 vs DCF value $115.31 — price is 100.9% above the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $231.61. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
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