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Research · S&P 500 · Consumer Discretionary

HLT · Hilton Worldwide

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

Price · last 3 months · daily close

HLT price

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Daily closing prices via yfinance. Quotes are delayed. Past prices are not a guarantee of future results.

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence

29/55
low-moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored

11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (ROE Trend) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

3/5

Diluted EPS: $4.53 (2022), $4.33 (2023), $6.14 (2024), $6.12 (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

ROE Trend

Not scored

Shareholder equity is negative in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, so ROE has no meaningful value and is not scored.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 22.0%: operating income of $2.69B divided by $12.27B of capital (total assets $16.77B minus current liabilities $4.51B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 31.0%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 79.0%, operating margin 63.0%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

1/5

Shareholder equity is negative, so debt-to-equity has no meaningful value (total debt $14.02B, total cash $1.01B). The framework scores negative equity as 1. Calculated from the balance sheet in yfinance (at Jun 30, 2026) because yfinance's summary figure was not available.

Free Cash Flow

5/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $1.58B (2022), $1.70B (2023), $1.81B (2024), $1.94B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Retained Earnings

1/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$5.19B (2022), -$4.21B (2023), -$2.82B (2024), -$1.51B (2025). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.

Valuation models

Graham IV

2/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $6.82 x (8.5 + 2 x 18.9) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $308.75. Current price $345.12; price is 11.8% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $6.193, stage 1 growth = 8.5% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $29.72, PV of terminal value = $85.08, DCF value = $114.80. Current price $345.12; price is 200.6% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

2/5

Graham value $308.75 (price is 11.8% above the model value); DCF value $114.80 (price is 200.6% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

Book value is negative; the framework scores negative book value as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 4 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -2.9%, highest 22.0%.

2016: 3.7%, 2017: 9.6%, 2018: 12.6%, 2019: 13.7%, 2020: -2.9%, 2021: 8.1%, 2022: 17.2%, 2023: 19.1%, 2024: 20.0%, 2025: 22.0%

Gross margin, each year

Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026

We encounter active and robust competition as a hotel and resort manager, franchisor and lessee. Competition in the hospitality industry is based on several criteria, generally including: the attractiveness of the facility; location; level of service; quality of accommodations; amenities; food and beverage options and outlets; public and meeting spaces and other guest services; consistency of service; room rate;

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

3/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $10.58B paid out against $7.04B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $9.69B to $13.09B, up 35.1%, 4.6x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.27B to 0.23B, down 14.0% (pass). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $6.82, g = 18.9%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $308.75
    Current price $345.12 vs Graham value $308.75 — price is 11.8% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $6.193
    Stage 1 growth = 8.5% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $6.720 → PV $6.109
      Y2: $7.291 → PV $6.025
      Y3: $7.911 → PV $5.943
      Y4: $8.583 → PV $5.862
      Y5: $9.312 → PV $5.782
    Stage 1 PV sum = $29.72
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $137.03
    PV of terminal value = $85.08
    DCF value = $114.80
    Current price $345.12 vs DCF value $114.80 — price is 200.6% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $345.12. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.