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Research · S&P 500 · Information Technology
HPQ · HP Inc.
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence
28/55
low-moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (ROE Trend) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.
Earnings & returns
EPS Trend
2/5Diluted EPS: $3.05 (2022), $3.26 (2023), $2.81 (2024), $2.65 (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.
ROE Trend
Not scoredShareholder equity is negative in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, so ROE has no meaningful value and is not scored.
ROIC
5/5ROIC of 25.4%: operating income of $3.17B divided by $12.51B of capital (total assets $41.77B minus current liabilities $29.26B), fiscal year to Oct 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.
Profit Margins
2/5Net margin of 4.1%; the framework scores 0-5% as 2; gross margin 19.7%, operating margin 5.4%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
1/5Shareholder equity is negative, so debt-to-equity has no meaningful value (total debt $10.34B, total cash $4.17B). The framework scores negative equity as 1. Calculated from the balance sheet in yfinance (at Jul 31, 2026) because yfinance's summary figure was not available.
Free Cash Flow
2/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $3.70B (2022), $2.98B (2023), $3.16B (2024), $2.80B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.
Retained Earnings
1/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$4.49B (2022), -$2.36B (2023), -$2.68B (2024), -$2.03B (2025). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.
Valuation models
Graham IV
1/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $2.62 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $21.78 (EPS CAGR -9.8% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $30.01; price is 37.8% above the model value.
DCF Value
5/5FCF/share = $3.759, stage 1 growth = 1.5% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $14.86, PV of terminal value = $37.00, DCF value = $51.86. Current price $30.01; price is 42.1% below the model value.
Margin of Safety
3/5Graham value $21.78 (price is 37.8% above the model value); DCF value $51.86 (price is 42.1% below the model value).
Price-to-Book
1/5Book value is negative; the framework scores negative book value as 1.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 10 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 25.4%, highest 56.2%.
Gross margin, each year
Between 18.2% and 22.1% over 10 years (a range of 3.9 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Dec 10, 2025
We encounter strong competition in all areas of our business activity. We compete on the basis of technology, innovation, performance, price, quality, reliability, brand, reputation, distribution, range of products and services, ease of use of our products, account relationships, customer training, service, support and solutions including subscription-based offerings and financing, security, availability of application software, and our sustainable impact. The markets for each of our key business segments are characterized by strong competition among major corporations with long-established positions and a large number of new and rapidly growing firms. Most product life cycles are short, and to remain competitive we must develop new products and services, periodically enhance our existing products and services and compete effectively based on the factors listed above. In addition, we compete with many of our current and potential partners, including OEMs that design, manufacture and often market their products under their own brand names. Our successful management of these competitive partner relationships will be critical to our future success. Moreover, we anticipate that we will have to continue to adjust prices on many of our products and services to stay competitive. The competitive environment in which each key segment operates is described below: Personal Systems.
The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
5/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $11.58B paid out against $12.63B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $12.29B to $10.88B, down 11.5%, 2.6x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.98B to 0.92B, down 6.0% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $2.62, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -9.8%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
IV = $21.78
Current price $30.01 vs Graham value $21.78 — price is 37.8% above the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $3.759
Stage 1 growth = 1.5% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Y1: $3.815 → PV $3.469
Y2: $3.873 → PV $3.201
Y3: $3.931 → PV $2.953
Y4: $3.990 → PV $2.725
Y5: $4.050 → PV $2.514
Stage 1 PV sum = $14.86
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $59.59
PV of terminal value = $37.00
DCF value = $51.86
Current price $30.01 vs DCF value $51.86 — price is 42.1% below the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $30.01. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
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