ILMN Value Scorecard - Illumina, Inc.

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

30/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: -$28.00 (2022), -$7.34 (2023), -$7.69 (2024), $5.45 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

1/5

ROE (net income / common equity): -66.7% (2022), -20.2% (2023), -51.5% (2024), 31.2% (2025). Median -35.9%, lowest -66.7%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.

ROIC

4/5

ROIC of 16.0%: operating income of $807.00M divided by $5.06B of capital (total assets $6.64B minus current liabilities $1.58B), fiscal year to Dec 28, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 15-20% as 4.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 18.3%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 67.9%, operating margin 21.1%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

3/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.89; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $2.53B, total cash $1.17B).

Free Cash Flow

5/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $106.00M (2022), $283.00M (2023), $709.00M (2024), $931.00M (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Retained Earnings

1/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $1.14B (2023), -$19.00M (2023), -$1.24B (2024), -$392.00M (2025). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $5.39 x (8.5 + 2 x 5.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $97.50 (EPS CAGR unavailable, default 5% applied). Current price $262.54; price is 169.3% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $5.282, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -1.8% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $20.02, PV of terminal value = $48.26, DCF value = $68.29. Current price $262.54; price is 284.5% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

1/5

Graham value $97.50 (price is 169.3% above the model value); DCF value $68.29 (price is 284.5% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 13.97; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 3 of 10 years (2017-2025); lowest -44.1%, highest 17.1%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 60.9% and 69.7% over 10 years (a range of 8.8 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026

Although we believe that our products and services provide significant advantages over products and services currently available from other sources, we expect continued intense competition. Our competitors offer products, services, and software for sequencing, SNP genotyping, gene expression, proteomics, and molecular diagnostics markets. In some cases, we compete for the resources our customers allocate for

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in 2 of 4 years (fail); $858.00M paid out against $2.03B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $3.56B to $2.55B, down 28.2%, 1.8x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.16B to 0.15B, down 3.2% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $5.39, g = 5.0%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $97.50
    Current price $262.54 vs Graham value $97.50 — price is 169.3% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $5.282
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -1.8%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $5.282 → PV $4.802
      Y2: $5.282 → PV $4.366
      Y3: $5.282 → PV $3.969
      Y4: $5.282 → PV $3.608
      Y5: $5.282 → PV $3.280
    Stage 1 PV sum = $20.02
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $77.73
    PV of terminal value = $48.26
    DCF value = $68.29
    Current price $262.54 vs DCF value $68.29 — price is 284.5% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $262.54. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

Loading headlines...

The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.

ILMN · Illumina, Inc.

ILMN price