INCY Value Scorecard - Incyte

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

49/60

high value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: $1.52 (2022), $2.65 (2023), $0.15 (2024), $6.41 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

2/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 7.8% (2022), 11.5% (2023), 0.9% (2024), 24.9% (2025). Median 9.7%, lowest 0.9%; the framework scores a median 5-10% as 2.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 27.8%: operating income of $1.51B divided by $5.44B of capital (total assets $6.96B minus current liabilities $1.52B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 27.7%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 55.7%, operating margin 41.9%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Net cash: total debt $38.27M, total cash $4.54B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.

Free Cash Flow

3/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $892.11M (2022), $449.00M (2023), $235.17M (2024), $1.33B (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

Retained Earnings

4/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$437.21M (2022), $160.38M (2023), -$1.07B (2024), $213.77M (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $7.85 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $372.26 (EPS CAGR 55.5% capped at 20%). Current price $113.07; price is 69.6% below the model value.

DCF Value

5/5

FCF/share = $5.825, stage 1 growth = 17.9% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $36.03, PV of terminal value = $121.23, DCF value = $157.27. Current price $113.07; price is 28.1% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

5/5

Graham value $372.26 (price is 69.6% below the model value); DCF value $157.27 (price is 28.1% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

2/5

P/B of 3.58; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 1 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -12.6%, highest 27.8%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 92.6% and 95.1% over 10 years (a range of 2.5 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026

Our drug discovery, development and commercialization activities face, and will continue to face, intense competition from organizations such as pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, as well as academic and research institutions and government agencies. We face significant competition from organizations, particularly fully integrated pharmaceutical companies, that are pursuing pharmaceuticals that are

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in 1 of 4 years (fail); $2.00B paid out against $2.91B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $41.46M to $40.41M, down 2.5%, 0.0x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.22B to 0.20B, down 10.9% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $7.85, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 55.5%)
    IV = $372.26
    Current price $113.07 vs Graham value $372.26 — price is 69.6% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $5.825
    Stage 1 growth = 17.9% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $6.867 → PV $6.243
      Y2: $8.097 → PV $6.691
      Y3: $9.546 → PV $7.172
      Y4: $11.255 → PV $7.687
      Y5: $13.269 → PV $8.239
    Stage 1 PV sum = $36.03
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $195.25
    PV of terminal value = $121.23
    DCF value = $157.27
    Current price $113.07 vs DCF value $157.27 — price is 28.1% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $113.07. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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