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Research · S&P 500 · Industrials

ITW · Illinois Tool Works

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

Price · last 3 months · daily close

ITW price

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Daily closing prices via yfinance. Quotes are delayed. Past prices are not a guarantee of future results.

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

34/60
low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

3/5

Diluted EPS: $9.77 (2022), $9.74 (2023), $11.71 (2024), $10.49 (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 98.3% (2022), 98.2% (2023), 105.2% (2024), 95.1% (2025). Median 98.2%, lowest 95.1%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 38.3%: operating income of $4.22B divided by $11.02B of capital (total assets $16.15B minus current liabilities $5.13B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 19.4%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 44.2%, operating margin 26.9%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

1/5

Debt-to-equity of 3.35; the framework scores above 2.5 as 1 (total debt $9.69B, total cash $839.00M).

Free Cash Flow

3/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $1.94B (2022), $3.08B (2023), $2.84B (2024), $2.71B (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $25.80B (2022), $27.12B (2023), $28.89B (2024), $30.15B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $11.03 x (8.5 + 2 x 3.8) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $173.64. Current price $272.28; price is 56.8% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $8.543, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -0.2% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $32.38, PV of terminal value = $78.05, DCF value = $110.43. Current price $272.28; price is 146.6% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

1/5

Graham value $173.64 (price is 56.8% above the model value); DCF value $110.43 (price is 146.6% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 26.79; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 10 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 22.1%, highest 39.6%.

2016: 24.6%, 2017: 25.4%, 2018: 31.6%, 2019: 26.3%, 2020: 22.1%, 2021: 27.6%, 2022: 34.6%, 2023: 37.3%, 2024: 39.6%, 2025: 38.3%

Gross margin, each year

Between 40.8% and 44.3% over 10 years (a range of 3.5 points).

2016: 41.8%, 2017: 42.0%, 2018: 41.7%, 2019: 42.0%, 2020: 41.3%, 2021: 41.3%, 2022: 40.8%, 2023: 42.2%, 2024: 44.3%, 2025: 44.1%

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026

With operations in 49 countries, the Company offers a wide range of products in a myriad of markets, many of which are fragmented, and the Company encounters a variety of competitors that vary by product line, end market and geographic area. The Company's competitors include many regional or specialized companies, as well as large U.S. and non-U.S. companies or divisions of large companies. Each of the Company's

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $12.89B paid out against $10.57B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $7.95B to $9.21B, up 15.9%, 2.0x EBITDA (pass: at most 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.30B to 0.29B, down 5.4% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $11.03, g = 3.8%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $173.64
    Current price $272.28 vs Graham value $173.64 — price is 56.8% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $8.543
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -0.2%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $8.543 → PV $7.766
      Y2: $8.543 → PV $7.060
      Y3: $8.543 → PV $6.418
      Y4: $8.543 → PV $5.835
      Y5: $8.543 → PV $5.304
    Stage 1 PV sum = $32.38
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $125.70
    PV of terminal value = $78.05
    DCF value = $110.43
    Current price $272.28 vs DCF value $110.43 — price is 146.6% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $272.28. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.