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Research · S&P 500 · Industrials

JCI · Johnson Controls

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

Price · last 3 months · daily close

JCI price

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Daily closing prices via yfinance. Quotes are delayed. Past prices are not a guarantee of future results.

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

31/60
low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: $2.19 (2022), $2.69 (2023), $2.52 (2024), $5.03 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

3/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 9.4% (2022), 11.2% (2023), 10.6% (2024), 25.5% (2025). Median 10.9%, lowest 9.4%; the framework scores a median 10-15% as 3.

ROIC

1/5

ROIC of 4.3%: earnings before interest and taxes of $1.34B (pre-tax income $1.11B plus interest expense $225.00M; the 10-K's financial data has no standard operating income figure) divided by $30.92B of capital (total assets $42.16B minus current liabilities $11.24B), fiscal year to Sep 30, 2022, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 14.3%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 36.7%, operating margin 15.9%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

4/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.70; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $9.48B, total cash $641.00M).

Free Cash Flow

2/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $1.50B (2022), $1.77B (2023), $1.60B (2024), $965.00M (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

Retained Earnings

1/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $1.15B (2022), $1.38B (2023), $848.00M (2024), $0 (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.

Valuation models

Graham IV

4/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $3.54 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $167.87 (EPS CAGR 36.7% capped at 20%). Current price $145.47; price is 13.3% below the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $4.926, stage 1 growth = 2.8% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $20.20, PV of terminal value = $51.67, DCF value = $71.87. Current price $145.47; price is 102.4% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $167.87 (price is 13.3% below the model value); DCF value $71.87 (price is 102.4% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 6.54; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 0 of 9 years (2013-2022); lowest 2.9%, highest 8.6%.

2013: 8.1%, 2015: 6.3%, 2016: 2.9%, 2017: 4.0%, 2018: 5.2%, 2019: 4.2%, 2020: 3.5%, 2021: 8.6%, 2022: 4.3%

Gross margin, each year

Between 27.1% and 36.4% over 10 years (a range of 9.3 points).

2016: 27.1%, 2017: 33.0%, 2018: 32.8%, 2019: 32.1%, 2020: 33.2%, 2021: 34.1%, 2022: 34.4%, 2023: 34.9%, 2024: 35.2%, 2025: 36.4%

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Nov 14, 2025

The Company conducts its operations through a significant number of individual contracts that are either negotiated or awarded on a competitive basis. Key factors in the award of contracts include system and service performance, quality, price, design, reputation, technology, application engineering capability, availability of financing and construction or project management expertise. Competitors for HVAC

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

3/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $13.18B paid out against $5.85B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $8.96B to $9.88B, up 10.3%, 3.2x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.69B to 0.61B, down 11.3% (pass). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $3.54, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 36.7%)
    IV = $167.87
    Current price $145.47 vs Graham value $167.87 — price is 13.3% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $4.926
    Stage 1 growth = 2.8% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $5.064 → PV $4.604
      Y2: $5.206 → PV $4.303
      Y3: $5.352 → PV $4.021
      Y4: $5.502 → PV $3.758
      Y5: $5.656 → PV $3.512
    Stage 1 PV sum = $20.20
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $83.22
    PV of terminal value = $51.67
    DCF value = $71.87
    Current price $145.47 vs DCF value $71.87 — price is 102.4% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $145.47. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.