JNJ Value Scorecard - Johnson & Johnson

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

41/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: $6.73 (2022), $13.72 (2023), $5.79 (2024), $11.03 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 23.4% (2022), 51.1% (2023), 19.7% (2024), 32.9% (2025). Median 28.1%, lowest 19.7%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 23.1%: earnings before interest and taxes of $33.55B (pre-tax income $32.58B plus interest expense $971.00M; the 10-K's financial data has no standard operating income figure) divided by $145.08B of capital (total assets $199.21B minus current liabilities $54.13B), fiscal year to Dec 28, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 16.2%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 67.8%, operating margin 25.1%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

4/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.58; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $49.04B, total cash $20.76B).

Free Cash Flow

5/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $17.18B (2022), $17.78B (2023), $18.06B (2024), $19.31B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $128.34B (2023), $153.84B (2023), $155.79B (2024), $168.98B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $6.59 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $54.77 (EPS CAGR -10.3% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $255.56; price is 366.6% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $9.224, stage 1 growth = 5.2% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $40.42, PV of terminal value = $108.58, DCF value = $149.00. Current price $255.56; price is 71.5% above the model value. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. Calculated from the quarterly statements in yfinance (four quarters to Jun 30, 2026) because yfinance's summary figure was not available.

Margin of Safety

1/5

Graham value $54.77 (price is 366.6% above the model value); DCF value $149.00 (price is 71.5% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 7.24; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 3 of 10 years (2017-2025); lowest 12.6%, highest 23.1%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 65.6% and 70.3% over 10 years (a range of 4.7 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026

In all of their product lines, the Company's subsidiaries compete with companies both locally and globally. Competition exists in all product lines without regard to the number and size of the competing companies involved. Competition in research, both internally and externally sourced, involving the development and the improvement of new and existing products and processes, is particularly significant. The

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $67.13B paid out against $72.33B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $39.64B to $47.93B, up 20.9%, 1.2x EBITDA (pass: at most 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 2.61B to 2.41B, down 7.9% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $6.59, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
    g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -10.3%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
    IV = $54.77
    Current price $255.56 vs Graham value $54.77 — price is 366.6% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $9.224
    Stage 1 growth = 5.2% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $9.703 → PV $8.821
      Y2: $10.208 → PV $8.436
      Y3: $10.739 → PV $8.068
      Y4: $11.297 → PV $7.716
      Y5: $11.884 → PV $7.379
    Stage 1 PV sum = $40.42
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $174.87
    PV of terminal value = $108.58
    DCF value = $149.00
    Current price $255.56 vs DCF value $149.00 — price is 71.5% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $255.56. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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