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KHC price
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Research · S&P 500 · Consumer Staples
KHC · Kraft Heinz
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence
31/55
low-moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (Margin of Safety) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.
Earnings & returns
EPS Trend
1/5Diluted EPS: $1.91 (2022), $2.31 (2023), $2.26 (2024), -$4.93 (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.
ROE Trend
2/5ROE (net income / common equity): 4.9% (2022), 5.8% (2023), 5.6% (2024), -14.0% (2025). Median 5.2%, lowest -14.0%; the framework scores a median 5-10% as 2.
ROIC
1/5ROIC of -6.4%: operating income of -$4.67B divided by $73.01B of capital (total assets $81.79B minus current liabilities $8.78B), fiscal year to Dec 27, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.
Profit Margins
1/5Net margin of -13.6%; the framework scores a negative net margin as 1; gross margin 33.5%, operating margin 15.5%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
4/5Debt-to-equity of 0.53; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $19.00B, total cash $2.68B).
Free Cash Flow
5/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $1.55B (2022), $2.96B (2023), $3.02B (2024), $3.66B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Retained Earnings
1/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $489.00M (2022), $1.37B (2023), $2.17B (2024), -$4.63B (2025). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.
Valuation models
Graham IV
1/5Trailing EPS is -$2.87; the Graham formula requires positive trailing EPS, so no intrinsic value is computed.
DCF Value
5/5FCF/share = $2.741, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -3.2% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $10.39, PV of terminal value = $25.04, DCF value = $35.44. Current price $23.68; price is 33.2% below the model value.
Margin of Safety
Not scoredNeeds both a Graham value and a DCF value. Graham value N/A (not comparable); DCF value $35.44 (price is 33.2% below the model value).
Price-to-Book
5/5P/B of 0.78; the framework scores below 1.0 as 5.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -10.6%, highest 5.6%.
Gross margin, each year
Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
Our products are sold in highly competitive marketplaces, including e-commerce retailers, large-format retailers, and discounters. Our competitors include large national and international food and beverage companies and numerous local and regional companies. We compete with both branded and private label products sold by retailers, wholesalers, and cooperatives. We compete on the basis of product innovation, price, product quality, nutritional value, service, taste, convenience, brand recognition and loyalty, effectiveness of marketing and distribution, promotional activity, and the ability to identify and satisfy changing consumer preferences. Improving our market position or introducing new products requires substantial advertising, promotional, and research and development expenditures.
The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
5/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $9.91B paid out against $11.20B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $20.07B to $21.22B, up 5.7% (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 1.22B to 1.18B, down 3.4% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
Trailing EPS -$2.87 — formula requires positive trailing EPS, no value computed.
DCF:
FCF/share = $2.741
Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -3.2%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
Y1: $2.741 → PV $2.492
Y2: $2.741 → PV $2.265
Y3: $2.741 → PV $2.059
Y4: $2.741 → PV $1.872
Y5: $2.741 → PV $1.702
Stage 1 PV sum = $10.39
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $40.33
PV of terminal value = $25.04
DCF value = $35.44
Current price $23.68 vs DCF value $35.44 — price is 33.2% below the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $23.68. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice
In the news
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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.