MCO Value Scorecard - Moody's Corporation

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

47/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

5/5

Diluted EPS: $7.44 (2022), $8.73 (2023), $11.26 (2024), $13.67 (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 54.5% (2022), 48.4% (2023), 57.7% (2024), 60.7% (2025). Median 56.1%, lowest 48.4%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 26.1%: operating income of $3.35B divided by $12.85B of capital (total assets $15.83B minus current liabilities $2.98B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 34.3%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 75.0%, operating margin 49.5%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

2/5

Debt-to-equity of 2.41; the framework scores 1.5-2.5 as 2 (total debt $7.62B, total cash $1.50B).

Free Cash Flow

5/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $1.19B (2022), $1.88B (2023), $2.52B (2024), $2.58B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $13.62B (2022), $14.66B (2023), $16.07B (2024), $17.85B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $15.76 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $747.37 (EPS CAGR 25.1% capped at 20%). Current price $485.07; price is 35.1% below the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $14.893, stage 1 growth = 14.2% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $83.44, PV of terminal value = $264.29, DCF value = $347.73. Current price $485.07; price is 39.5% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $747.37 (price is 35.1% below the model value); DCF value $347.73 (price is 39.5% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 27.77; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 10 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 15.7%, highest 27.9%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 70.5% and 74.4% over 9 years (a range of 3.9 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026

MA competes broadly in the financial information and enterprise risk software industries against various diversified competitors. MA’s main competitors within DS are providers of software and analytic solutions. In R&I, MA faces competition from providers of economic data, financial research and analysis. MA's main competitors within D&I are providers of commercial and financial data. MIS competes with other CRAs

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $7.12B paid out against $8.17B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $7.86B to $7.35B, down 6.5%, 1.9x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.18B to 0.18B, down 3.1% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $15.76, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 25.1%)
    IV = $747.37
    Current price $485.07 vs Graham value $747.37 — price is 35.1% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $14.893
    Stage 1 growth = 14.2% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $17.007 → PV $15.461
      Y2: $19.422 → PV $16.052
      Y3: $22.180 → PV $16.665
      Y4: $25.330 → PV $17.301
      Y5: $28.927 → PV $17.961
    Stage 1 PV sum = $83.44
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $425.64
    PV of terminal value = $264.29
    DCF value = $347.73
    Current price $485.07 vs DCF value $347.73 — price is 39.5% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $485.07. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

Loading headlines...

The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.

MCO · Moody's Corporation

MCO price