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MOS price
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Research · S&P 500 · Materials
MOS · Mosaic Company
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence
22/55
low-moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (Margin of Safety) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.
Earnings & returns
EPS Trend
1/5Diluted EPS: $10.06 (2022), $3.50 (2023), $0.55 (2024), $1.70 (2025). The latest figure is half the 2022 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.
ROE Trend
2/5ROE (net income / common equity): 29.7% (2022), 9.5% (2023), 1.5% (2024), 4.5% (2025). Median 7.0%, lowest 1.5%; the framework scores a median 5-10% as 2.
ROIC
1/5ROIC of 4.0%: operating income of $821.50M divided by $20.50B of capital (total assets $24.48B minus current liabilities $3.98B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.
Profit Margins
1/5Net margin of -5.2%; the framework scores a negative net margin as 1; gross margin 11.2%, operating margin -0.1%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
4/5Debt-to-equity of 0.52; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $6.08B, total cash $294.00M).
Free Cash Flow
1/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $2.69B (2022), $1.00B (2023), $47.40M (2024), -$534.60M (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.
Retained Earnings
2/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $14.20B (2022), $14.24B (2023), $13.93B (2024), $14.18B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.
Valuation models
Graham IV
1/5Trailing EPS is -$2.01; the Graham formula requires positive trailing EPS, so no intrinsic value is computed.
DCF Value
1/5Free cash flow per share is -$2.35; a two-stage DCF cannot be computed from negative free cash flow.
Margin of Safety
Not scoredNeeds both a Graham value and a DCF value. Graham value N/A (not comparable); DCF value N/A (not comparable).
Price-to-Book
5/5P/B of 0.52; the framework scores below 1.0 as 5.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 1 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -6.6%, highest 26.8%.
Gross margin, each year
Between 10.1% and 30.1% over 8 years (a range of 20.0 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Because crop nutrients are global commodities available from numerous sources, crop nutrition companies compete primarily on the basis of delivered price. Other competitive factors include product quality, cost and availability of raw materials, customer service, plant efficiency and availability of product. As a result, markets for our products are highly competitive. We compete with a broad range of domestic and international producers, including farmer cooperatives, subsidiaries of larger companies, and independent crop nutrient companies. Foreign competitors may have access to less expensive raw materials, may not have to comply with as stringent regulatory requirements or are owned or subsidized by governments and, as a result, may have cost advantages over North American companies. We believe that our extensive North American and international production and distribution system provides us with a competitive advantage by allowing us to achieve economies of scale, transportation and storage efficiencies, and obtain market intelligence. Also, we believe our performance products, such as MicroEssentials ® , provide us a competitive advantage with customers in North and South America. Unlike many of our competitors, we have our own distribution system to sell phosphate- and potash-based crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, whether produced by us or by other third parties, around the globe.
The opening of the company’s “COMPETITION” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
3/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $3.76B paid out against $3.21B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $3.81B to $5.28B, up 38.6%, 2.1x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.34B to 0.32B, down 6.4% (pass). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
Trailing EPS -$2.01 — formula requires positive trailing EPS, no value computed.
DCF:
FCF/share -$2.348 — a two-stage DCF cannot be computed from negative free cash flow.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $18.82. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice
In the news
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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.