MPC Value Scorecard - Marathon Petroleum

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

30/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

1/5

Diluted EPS: $28.12 (2022), $23.63 (2023), $10.08 (2024), $13.22 (2025). The latest figure is half the 2022 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 52.3% (2022), 39.6% (2023), 19.4% (2024), 23.4% (2025). Median 31.5%, lowest 19.4%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

3/5

ROIC of 12.9%: operating income of $8.29B divided by $64.28B of capital (total assets $83.95B minus current liabilities $19.68B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.

Profit Margins

3/5

Net margin of 5.5%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 12.8%, operating margin 13.6%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

3/5

Debt-to-equity of 1.33; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $34.29B, total cash $7.77B).

Free Cash Flow

1/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $13.94B (2022), $12.23B (2023), $6.13B (2024), $4.77B (2025). The latest figure is half the 2022 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $26.14B (2022), $34.56B (2023), $36.85B (2024), $39.75B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $28.88 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $240.02 (EPS CAGR -25.2% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $478.07; price is 99.2% above the model value.

DCF Value

2/5

FCF/share = $31.683, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -5.4% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $120.10, PV of terminal value = $289.47, DCF value = $409.57. Current price $478.07; price is 16.7% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

2/5

Graham value $240.02 (price is 99.2% above the model value); DCF value $409.57 (price is 16.7% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 7.09; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 2 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -17.6%, highest 30.7%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 5.8% and 14.5% over 8 years (a range of 8.7 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

The latest 10-K has no section headed “Competition” that could be quoted. Open the filing to read how the company describes its markets.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

3/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $41.01B paid out against $37.07B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $27.91B to $34.36B, up 23.1%, 2.9x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.45B to 0.29B, down 35.1% (pass). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $28.88, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
    g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -25.2%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
    IV = $240.02
    Current price $478.07 vs Graham value $240.02 — price is 99.2% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $31.683
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -5.4%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $31.683 → PV $28.803
      Y2: $31.683 → PV $26.184
      Y3: $31.683 → PV $23.804
      Y4: $31.683 → PV $21.640
      Y5: $31.683 → PV $19.673
    Stage 1 PV sum = $120.10
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $466.19
    PV of terminal value = $289.47
    DCF value = $409.57
    Current price $478.07 vs DCF value $409.57 — price is 16.7% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $478.07. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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