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Research · S&P 500 · Health Care

MRNA · Moderna

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

Price · last 3 months · daily close

MRNA price

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Daily closing prices via yfinance. Quotes are delayed. Past prices are not a guarantee of future results.

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence

16/55
low value score11 of 12 checks scored

11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (Margin of Safety) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

1/5

Diluted EPS: $20.12 (2022), -$12.33 (2023), -$9.28 (2024), -$7.26 (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.

ROE Trend

1/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 43.7% (2022), -34.0% (2023), -32.7% (2024), -32.6% (2025). Median -32.6%, lowest -34.0%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.

ROIC

1/5

ROIC of -29.7%: operating income of -$3.07B divided by $10.35B of capital (total assets $12.34B minus current liabilities $1.99B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.

Profit Margins

1/5

Net margin of -141.4%; the framework scores a negative net margin as 1; gross margin -66.0%, operating margin -557.9%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Net cash: total debt $1.29B, total cash $5.14B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.

Free Cash Flow

1/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $4.58B (2022), -$3.83B (2023), -$4.05B (2024), -$2.08B (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.

Retained Earnings

1/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $18.32B (2022), $13.61B (2023), $10.04B (2024), $7.22B (2025). The latest figure is half the 2022 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

Trailing EPS is -$7.98; the Graham formula requires positive trailing EPS, so no intrinsic value is computed.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $0.750, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -46.7% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $2.84, PV of terminal value = $6.85, DCF value = $9.69. Current price $218.01; price is 2149.9% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

Not scored

Needs both a Graham value and a DCF value. Graham value N/A (not comparable); DCF value $9.69 (price is 2149.9% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 12.87; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 2 of 9 years (2017-2025); lowest -37.8%, highest 85.6%.

2017: -30.2%, 2018: -23.8%, 2019: -37.8%, 2020: -25.9%, 2021: 85.6%, 2022: 45.0%, 2023: -27.5%, 2024: -33.1%, 2025: -29.7%

Gross margin, each year

Between 31.5% and 100.0% over 8 years (a range of 68.5 points).

2018: 100.0%, 2019: 100.0%, 2020: 99.0%, 2021: 85.8%, 2022: 71.9%, 2023: 31.5%, 2024: 54.8%, 2025: 55.3%

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026

The biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries utilize rapidly advancing technologies and are characterized by intense competition. There is also a strong emphasis on defense of intellectual property and proprietary products. We believe that mRNA as a medicine coupled with our capabilities across mRNA technology, drug discovery, development and manufacturing provide us with a competitive advantage. However, we face

The opening of the company’s “COMPETITION” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

2/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in 2 of 4 years (fail); $4.48B paid out against -$5.37B of free cash flow (fail: free cash flow was negative); total debt $1.20B to $1.30B, up 8.8% (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.39B to 0.39B, up 2.3% (fail: up more than 2%). 1 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 2.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    Trailing EPS -$7.98 — formula requires positive trailing EPS, no value computed.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $0.750
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -46.7%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $0.750 → PV $0.681
      Y2: $0.750 → PV $0.619
      Y3: $0.750 → PV $0.563
      Y4: $0.750 → PV $0.512
      Y5: $0.750 → PV $0.465
    Stage 1 PV sum = $2.84
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $11.03
    PV of terminal value = $6.85
    DCF value = $9.69
    Current price $218.01 vs DCF value $9.69 — price is 2149.9% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $218.01. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.