MSFT Value Scorecard - Microsoft

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

48/60

high value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

5/5

Diluted EPS: $9.68 (2023), $11.80 (2024), $13.64 (2025), $17.95 (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 35.1% (2023), 32.8% (2024), 29.6% (2025), 30.2% (2026). Median 31.5%, lowest 29.6%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 26.3%: operating income of $155.24B divided by $589.55B of capital (total assets $758.38B minus current liabilities $168.82B), fiscal year to Jun 30, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 40.3%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 67.9%, operating margin 45.1%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.29; the framework scores below 0.3 as 5 (total debt $128.81B, total cash $76.84B).

Free Cash Flow

3/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $59.48B (2023), $74.07B (2024), $71.61B (2025), $66.99B (2026). It ended above 2023 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $118.85B (2023), $173.14B (2024), $237.73B (2025), $328.26B (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $17.95 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $851.23 (EPS CAGR 23.3% capped at 20%). Current price $529.05; price is 37.8% below the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $2.228, stage 1 growth = 16.4% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $13.24, PV of terminal value = $43.50, DCF value = $56.74. Current price $529.05; price is 832.4% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $851.23 (price is 37.8% below the model value); DCF value $56.74 (price is 832.4% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 8.88; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 9 of 10 years (2017-2026); lowest 14.9%, highest 30.9%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 64.5% and 69.8% over 10 years (a range of 5.3 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Jul 29, 2026

Competitors to Office include software and global application vendors, web-based and mobile application companies, AI-first application companies, as well as local application developers. We compete by providing secure, integrated industry-specific, and easy-to-use productivity and collaboration tools and services that create comprehensive solutions and work well with technologies our customers already have both

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $172.29B paid out against $272.14B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $59.97B to $56.83B, down 5.2%, 0.3x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 7.43B to 7.43B, unchanged (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $17.95, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 23.3%)
    IV = $851.23
    Current price $529.05 vs Graham value $851.23 — price is 37.8% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $2.228
    Stage 1 growth = 16.4% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $2.594 → PV $2.358
      Y2: $3.019 → PV $2.495
      Y3: $3.514 → PV $2.640
      Y4: $4.090 → PV $2.794
      Y5: $4.761 → PV $2.956
    Stage 1 PV sum = $13.24
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $70.06
    PV of terminal value = $43.50
    DCF value = $56.74
    Current price $529.05 vs DCF value $56.74 — price is 832.4% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $529.05. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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