NEM Value Scorecard - Newmont

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

45/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: -$0.54 (2022), -$2.94 (2023), $2.92 (2024), $6.39 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

1/5

ROE (net income / common equity): -2.2% (2022), -8.6% (2023), 11.2% (2024), 20.9% (2025). Median 4.5%, lowest -8.6%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.

ROIC

3/5

ROIC of 12.7%: earnings before interest and taxes of $3.36B (pre-tax income $3.11B plus interest expense $249.00M; the 10-K's financial data has no standard operating income figure) divided by $26.43B of capital (total assets $29.57B minus current liabilities $3.14B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2012, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 33.4%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 68.0%, operating margin 51.6%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Net cash: total debt $5.60B, total cash $9.01B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $1.09B (2022), $97.00M (2023), $2.96B (2024), $7.30B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

4/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $916.00M (2022), -$3.00B (2023), -$1.32B (2024), $3.43B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Valuation models

Graham IV

4/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $7.93 x (8.5 + 2 x 5.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $143.44 (EPS CAGR unavailable, default 5% applied). Current price $118.60; price is 17.3% below the model value.

DCF Value

5/5

FCF/share = $8.367, stage 1 growth = 20.0% (revenue CAGR 38.5% capped at 20%) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $54.72, PV of terminal value = $190.21, DCF value = $244.93. Current price $118.60; price is 51.6% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

4/5

Graham value $143.44 (price is 17.3% below the model value); DCF value $244.93 (price is 51.6% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

2/5

P/B of 3.56; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 2 of 5 years (2008-2012); lowest 9.3%, highest 18.7%.

Gross margin, each year

Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026

The top 10 producers of gold comprise approximately 25% of total worldwide mined gold production. We currently rank as the top gold producer with approximately 5% of estimated total worldwide mined gold production. Our competitive position is based on the size and grade of our ore bodies anchored in favorable mining jurisdictions and our ability to manage costs compared with other producers. We have a diverse

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $8.96B paid out against $11.45B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $6.13B to $5.59B, down 8.9%, 0.4x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.79B to 1.09B, up 37.3% (fail: up more than 2%). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $7.93, g = 5.0%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $143.44
    Current price $118.60 vs Graham value $143.44 — price is 17.3% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $8.367
    Stage 1 growth = 20.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g capped at 20.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was 38.5%)
      Y1: $10.040 → PV $9.127
      Y2: $12.048 → PV $9.957
      Y3: $14.458 → PV $10.862
      Y4: $17.349 → PV $11.850
      Y5: $20.819 → PV $12.927
    Stage 1 PV sum = $54.72
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $306.34
    PV of terminal value = $190.21
    DCF value = $244.93
    Current price $118.60 vs DCF value $244.93 — price is 51.6% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $118.60. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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