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NKE price
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Research · S&P 500 · Consumer Discretionary
NKE · Nike, Inc.
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence
25/55
low-moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (ROIC) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.
Earnings & returns
EPS Trend
2/5Diluted EPS: $3.23 (2023), $3.73 (2024), $2.16 (2025), $2.10 (2026). It ended at or below 2023; the framework scores that as 2.
ROE Trend
5/5ROE (net income / common equity): 36.2% (2023), 39.5% (2024), 24.4% (2025), 20.9% (2026). Median 30.3%, lowest 20.9%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.
ROIC
Not scoredROIC not available: the 10-K financial data filed with the SEC has no standard operating income figure (or pre-tax income and interest expense), total assets and current liabilities for the same fiscal year.
Profit Margins
3/5Net margin of 6.7%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 43.4%, operating margin 7.9%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
4/5Debt-to-equity of 0.73; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $11.13B, total cash $8.37B).
Free Cash Flow
1/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $4.87B (2023), $6.62B (2024), $3.27B (2025), $2.18B (2026). The latest figure is half the 2023 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.
Retained Earnings
1/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $1.36B (2023), $965.00M (2024), -$727.00M (2025), -$155.00M (2026). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.
Valuation models
Graham IV
1/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $2.08 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $17.29 (EPS CAGR -25.0% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $37.13; price is 114.8% above the model value.
DCF Value
1/5FCF/share = $1.468, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -5.0% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $5.56, PV of terminal value = $13.41, DCF value = $18.97. Current price $37.13; price is 95.7% above the model value.
Margin of Safety
1/5Graham value $17.29 (price is 114.8% above the model value); DCF value $18.97 (price is 95.7% above the model value).
Price-to-Book
2/5P/B of 3.62; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Not available: the 10-K financial data has no standard figures for operating income, total assets and current liabilities in the same years, as is common for banks, insurers and REITs.
Gross margin, each year
Between 42.7% and 46.0% over 10 years (a range of 3.3 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Jul 15, 2026
The athletic footwear, apparel and equipment industry is highly competitive on a worldwide basis. We compete internationally with a significant number of athletic and leisure footwear companies, athletic and leisure apparel companies, sports equipment companies and large companies having diversified lines of athletic and leisure footwear, apparel and equipment, including adidas, Anta, ASICS, Deckers, Li Ning, lululemon athletica, New Balance, On, Puma, Under Armour and V.F. Corporation, among others. The intense competition and the rapid changes in technology and consumer preferences in the markets for athletic and leisure footwear and apparel and athletic equipment constitute significant risk factors in our operations. Refer to Item 1A. Risk Factors for additional information. NIKE is the largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel in the world. Important aspects of competition in this industry are: • Product attributes such as quality; innovation and development; performance and reliability; new product style and design; as well as consumer price/value.
The opening of the company’s “COMPETITION” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
4/5Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $21.75B paid out against $16.94B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $12.14B to $11.03B, down 9.1%, 2.4x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 1.53B to 1.48B, down 3.2% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $2.08, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -25.0%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
IV = $17.29
Current price $37.13 vs Graham value $17.29 — price is 114.8% above the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $1.468
Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -5.0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
Y1: $1.468 → PV $1.334
Y2: $1.468 → PV $1.213
Y3: $1.468 → PV $1.103
Y4: $1.468 → PV $1.002
Y5: $1.468 → PV $0.911
Stage 1 PV sum = $5.56
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $21.59
PV of terminal value = $13.41
DCF value = $18.97
Current price $37.13 vs DCF value $18.97 — price is 95.7% above the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $37.13. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
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