NRG Value Scorecard - NRG Energy

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

26/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

2/5

Diluted EPS: $5.17 (2022), -$1.12 (2023), $4.99 (2024), $4.01 (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 31.9% (2022), -11.3% (2023), 57.9% (2024), 77.3% (2025). Median 44.9%, lowest -11.3%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

2/5

ROIC of 8.7%: operating income of $1.84B divided by $21.11B of capital (total assets $29.14B minus current liabilities $8.03B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 5-10% as 2.

Profit Margins

2/5

Net margin of 2.6%; the framework scores 0-5% as 2; gross margin 18.8%, operating margin 12.8%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

1/5

Debt-to-equity of 4.83; the framework scores above 2.5 as 1 (total debt $23.47B, total cash $162.00M).

Free Cash Flow

3/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): -$13.00M (2022), -$843.00M (2023), $1.82B (2024), $765.00M (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

Retained Earnings

4/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $1.41B (2022), $820.00M (2023), $1.53B (2024), $1.98B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $3.82 x (8.5 + 2 x 5.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $69.10 (EPS CAGR unavailable, default 5% applied). Current price $103.75; price is 50.1% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $3.674, stage 1 growth = 3.2% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $15.23, PV of terminal value = $39.30, DCF value = $54.53. Current price $103.75; price is 90.3% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

1/5

Graham value $69.10 (price is 50.1% above the model value); DCF value $54.53 (price is 90.3% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 5.19; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 2 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -3.7%, highest 21.9%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 8.6% and 25.1% over 5 years (a range of 16.5 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026

While there has been consolidation in the competitive retail energy space over the past few years, there is still considerable competition for customers. In Texas, there is healthy competition in deregulated areas and customers can choose providers based on the most appealing offers. Outside of Texas, electricity and natural gas retailers compete with the incumbent utilities, in addition to other retail electric and

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

3/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $5.70B paid out against $1.73B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $8.30B to $16.62B, up 100.2%, 5.1x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.23B to 0.19B, down 17.1% (pass). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $3.82, g = 5.0%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $69.10
    Current price $103.75 vs Graham value $69.10 — price is 50.1% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $3.674
    Stage 1 growth = 3.2% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $3.792 → PV $3.447
      Y2: $3.913 → PV $3.234
      Y3: $4.038 → PV $3.034
      Y4: $4.168 → PV $2.847
      Y5: $4.301 → PV $2.671
    Stage 1 PV sum = $15.23
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $63.29
    PV of terminal value = $39.30
    DCF value = $54.53
    Current price $103.75 vs DCF value $54.53 — price is 90.3% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $103.75. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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