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Research · S&P 500 · Financials
NTRS · Northern Trust
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence
32/40
high value score8 of 12 checks scored8 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 4 could not be scored (ROIC, Debt-to-Equity, DCF Value, Margin of Safety) and were left out, so the score is out of 40 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.
Earnings & returns
EPS Trend
3/5Diluted EPS: $6.14 (2022), $5.08 (2023), $9.77 (2024), $8.74 (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.
ROE Trend
3/5ROE (net income / common equity): 12.4% (2022), 9.6% (2023), 16.6% (2024), 13.9% (2025). Median 13.1%, lowest 9.6%; the framework scores a median 10-15% as 3.
ROIC
Not scoredROIC not available: the 10-K financial data filed with the SEC has no standard operating income figure (or pre-tax income and interest expense), total assets and current liabilities for the same fiscal year.
Profit Margins
5/5Net margin of 24.7%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; operating margin 42.5%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
Not scoredDebt-to-equity not available from the data source (total debt $16.35B, total cash $10.00B).
Free Cash Flow
4/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $1.67B (2022), $1.95B (2023), -$1.23B (2024), $4.76B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.
Retained Earnings
5/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $13.80B (2022), $14.23B (2023), $15.61B (2024), $16.71B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Valuation models
Graham IV
5/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $11.64 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $551.99 (EPS CAGR 31.2% capped at 20%). Current price $165.54; price is 70.0% below the model value.
DCF Value
Not scoredFree cash flow or share count is not available from the data source, so no DCF value is computed.
Margin of Safety
Not scoredNeeds both a Graham value and a DCF value. Graham value $551.99 (price is 70.0% below the model value); DCF value N/A (not comparable).
Price-to-Book
3/5P/B of 2.42; the framework scores 1.5-3.0 as 3.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Not available: the 10-K financial data has no standard figures for operating income, total assets and current liabilities in the same years, as is common for banks, insurers and REITs.
Gross margin, each year
Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026
Northern Trust faces a number of competitors across its businesses. Competition comes from other financial services organizations, both regulated and unregulated, whose products and services may span the markets in which Northern Trust conducts operations. Our competitors include a broad range of financial institutions and service companies, including other custodial banks, investment counseling firms, deposit-taking institutions, asset management firms, benefits consultants, trust companies, investment banking firms, insurance companies, and various financial technology companies, including software providers and data services firms. As our businesses grow and markets evolve, we may encounter increasing and new forms of competition around the world. Northern Trust’s growth strategy is to leverage our differentiators to serve targeted client segments with specialized solutions in select geographies. Northern Trust’s differentiators are our: trusted brand, deep expertise, tailored technology, proven relationships and network and strong balance sheet. Northern Trust emphasizes the development and growth of scalable, sustainable fee-based income. Northern Trust will continue to enable its strategy through significant investments in talent and culture, technology, data, AI and operational excellence.
The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
4/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $5.33B paid out against $7.15B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $12.38B to $13.99B, up 13.0% (fail: up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.21B to 0.19B, down 10.6% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $11.64, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 31.2%)
IV = $551.99
Current price $165.54 vs Graham value $551.99 — price is 70.0% below the model value.
DCF:
Free cash flow or share count not available from the data source — no value computed.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $165.54. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice
In the news
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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.