NVDA Value Scorecard - Nvidia

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

50/60

high value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

5/5

Diluted EPS: $0.17 (2023), $1.19 (2024), $2.94 (2025), $4.90 (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 19.8% (2023), 69.2% (2024), 91.9% (2025), 76.3% (2026). Median 72.8%, lowest 19.8%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 74.7%: operating income of $130.39B divided by $174.64B of capital (total assets $206.80B minus current liabilities $32.16B), fiscal year to Jan 25, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 63.7%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 74.7%, operating margin 66.2%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Net cash: total debt $38.86B, total cash $62.47B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.

Free Cash Flow

5/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $3.81B (2023), $27.02B (2024), $60.85B (2025), $96.68B (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $10.17B (2023), $29.82B (2024), $68.04B (2025), $146.97B (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $7.91 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $375.11 (EPS CAGR 102.9% capped at 20%). Current price $214.13; price is 42.9% below the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $1.731, stage 1 growth = 20.0% (revenue CAGR 88.3% capped at 20%) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $11.32, PV of terminal value = $39.36, DCF value = $50.69. Current price $214.13; price is 322.4% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $375.11 (price is 42.9% below the model value); DCF value $50.69 (price is 322.4% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 22.58; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 9 of 10 years (2017-2026); lowest 12.2%, highest 87.1%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 56.9% and 75.0% over 10 years (a range of 18.1 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026

The market for our products is intensely competitive and is characterized by rapid technological change and evolving industry standards. We believe that the principal competitive factors in this market are performance, breadth of product offerings, access to customers and partners and distribution channels, software support, conformity to industry standard APIs, manufacturing capabilities, processor pricing, and

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $95.97B paid out against $188.36B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $12.03B to $11.04B, down 8.2%, 0.1x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 24.66B to 24.30B, down 1.4% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $7.91, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 102.9%)
    IV = $375.11
    Current price $214.13 vs Graham value $375.11 — price is 42.9% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $1.731
    Stage 1 growth = 20.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g capped at 20.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was 88.3%)
      Y1: $2.078 → PV $1.889
      Y2: $2.493 → PV $2.061
      Y3: $2.992 → PV $2.248
      Y4: $3.590 → PV $2.452
      Y5: $4.308 → PV $2.675
    Stage 1 PV sum = $11.32
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $63.40
    PV of terminal value = $39.36
    DCF value = $50.69
    Current price $214.13 vs DCF value $50.69 — price is 322.4% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $214.13. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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