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ValeriusBeta - Not investment advice
Research · S&P 500 · Information Technology
PANW · Palo Alto Networks
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence
31/60
low-moderate value scoreEarnings & returns
EPS Trend
2/5Diluted EPS: $0.64 (2023), $3.64 (2024), $1.60 (2025), $0.40 (2026). It ended at or below 2023; the framework scores that as 2.
ROE Trend
4/5ROE (net income / common equity): 25.1% (2023), 49.9% (2024), 14.5% (2025), 1.1% (2026). Median 19.8%, lowest 1.1%; the framework scores a median 15-20% as 4.
ROIC
1/5ROIC of 1.8%: operating income of $695.00M divided by $38.54B of capital (total assets $48.46B minus current liabilities $9.92B), fiscal year to Jul 31, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.
Profit Margins
2/5Net margin of 2.7%; the framework scores 0-5% as 2; gross margin 70.4%, operating margin 5.4%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
5/5Net cash: total debt $2.57B, total cash $3.07B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.
Free Cash Flow
5/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $2.63B (2023), $3.10B (2024), $3.47B (2025), $4.11B (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Retained Earnings
5/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$1.23B (2023), $1.35B (2024), $2.48B (2025), $2.79B (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Valuation models
Graham IV
1/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $0.40 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $3.32 (EPS CAGR -66.9% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $342.00; price is 10187.4% above the model value.
DCF Value
1/5FCF/share = $5.184, stage 1 growth = 19.6% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $33.55, PV of terminal value = $115.91, DCF value = $149.46. Current price $342.00; price is 128.8% above the model value.
Margin of Safety
1/5Graham value $3.32 (price is 10187.4% above the model value); DCF value $149.46 (price is 128.8% above the model value).
Price-to-Book
1/5P/B of 10.14; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2017-2026); lowest -7.4%, highest 8.0%.
Gross margin, each year
Between 68.8% and 74.3% over 10 years (a range of 5.5 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Sep 10, 2026
We operate in the intensely competitive enterprise security industry that is characterized by constant change and innovation. Changes in the application, threat, and technology landscape result in evolving customer requirements for the protection from threats and the safe enablement of applications. Our main competitors fall into four categories: • large companies that incorporate security or observability features in their products, such as Alphabet Inc., Cisco Systems, Inc., and Microsoft Corporation, or those that have acquired, or may acquire, security vendors and have the technical and financial resources to bring competitive solutions to the market; • independent vendors that offer a mix of security products, such as Check Point Software Technologies Ltd., CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., Delinea Inc., Fortinet, Inc., Okta, Inc., SailPoint Technologies, Inc., and Zscaler, Inc., vendors that offer a mix of observability products, such as DataDog, Inc., Dynatrace, Inc., and Elasticsearch B.V., or vendors that may offer a mix of security and observability products; • startups and point-product vendors that offer independent or emerging solutions across various areas of security; and • public cloud vendors and startups that offer solutions for cloud security (private, public, and hybrid cloud). As our market grows, it will attract more highly specialized vendors, as well as larger vendors that may continue to acquire or bundle their products more effectively.
The opening of the company’s “COMPETITION” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
3/5Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in 3 of 4 years (fail); $1.84B paid out against $13.31B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $2.27B to $2.50B, up 10.1%, 1.8x EBITDA (pass: at most 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.62B to 0.81B, up 32.2% (fail: up more than 2%). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $0.40, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -66.9%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
IV = $3.32
Current price $342.00 vs Graham value $3.32 — price is 10187.4% above the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $5.184
Stage 1 growth = 19.6% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Y1: $6.200 → PV $5.637
Y2: $7.415 → PV $6.128
Y3: $8.869 → PV $6.663
Y4: $10.607 → PV $7.245
Y5: $12.686 → PV $7.877
Stage 1 PV sum = $33.55
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $186.67
PV of terminal value = $115.91
DCF value = $149.46
Current price $342.00 vs DCF value $149.46 — price is 128.8% above the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $342.00. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.