Price · last 3 months · daily close
PGR price
Loading the price chart...
Daily closing prices via yfinance. Quotes are delayed. Past prices are not a guarantee of future results.
ValeriusBeta - Not investment advice
Research · S&P 500 · Financials
PGR · Progressive Corporation
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence
41/45
high value score9 of 12 checks scored9 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 3 could not be scored (ROIC, DCF Value, Margin of Safety) and were left out, so the score is out of 45 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.
Earnings & returns
EPS Trend
5/5Diluted EPS: $1.18 (2022), $6.58 (2023), $14.40 (2024), $19.23 (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
ROE Trend
5/5ROE (net income / common equity): 4.5% (2022), 19.5% (2023), 33.1% (2024), 37.3% (2025). Median 26.3%, lowest 4.5%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.
ROIC
Not scoredROIC not available: the 10-K financial data filed with the SEC has no standard operating income figure (or pre-tax income and interest expense), total assets and current liabilities for the same fiscal year.
Profit Margins
4/5Net margin of 12.7%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 17.3%, operating margin 14.3%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
5/5Debt-to-equity of 0.24; the framework scores below 0.3 as 5 (total debt $8.39B, total cash $2.12B).
Free Cash Flow
5/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $6.56B (2022), $10.39B (2023), $14.83B (2024), $17.20B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Retained Earnings
5/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $15.72B (2022), $18.80B (2023), $24.28B (2024), $27.33B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Valuation models
Graham IV
5/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $19.85 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $941.33 (EPS CAGR 71.0% capped at 20%). Current price $218.49; price is 76.8% below the model value.
DCF Value
Not scoredFree cash flow or share count is not available from the data source, so no DCF value is computed.
Margin of Safety
Not scoredNeeds both a Graham value and a DCF value. Graham value $941.33 (price is 76.8% below the model value); DCF value N/A (not comparable).
Price-to-Book
2/5P/B of 3.67; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Not available: the 10-K financial data has no standard figures for operating income, total assets and current liabilities in the same years, as is common for banks, insurers and REITs.
Gross margin, each year
Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
The insurance markets in which we operate are highly competitive. Property-casualty insurers generally compete on the basis of price, agent commission rates, consumer brand recognition and confidence, coverages offered and other product features, claims handling, financial stability, customer service, and geographic coverage. Vigorous competition is provided by large, well-capitalized national companies in both the agency and direct channels, and by smaller regional insurers. In the agency channel, some of our competitors have broad distribution networks of employed or captive agents. With widely available comparative rating services, consumers can easily compare prices among competitors. Due to the highly competitive nature of the property-casualty insurance markets in which we operate, many competitors invest heavily in advertising and marketing efforts and/or expanding their online or mobile service offerings. We rely heavily on technology to operate our business and on extensive data gathering and analysis to segment markets and price our products accurately according to risk. We have remained competitive by refining our risk measurement and price segmentation skills, closely managing expenses, and achieving operating efficiencies. High-quality customer service, fair and accurate claims adjusting, and strong brand recognition are also important factors in our competitive strategy.
The opening of the company’s “Competitive Factors” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
5/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $5.13B paid out against $48.98B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $6.39B to $6.90B, up 8.0% (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.58B to 0.59B, up 0.2% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
Loading...
These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $19.85, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 71.0%)
IV = $941.33
Current price $218.49 vs Graham value $941.33 — price is 76.8% below the model value.
DCF:
Free cash flow or share count not available from the data source — no value computed.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $218.49. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice
In the news
- Loading headlines...
The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.