PKG Value Scorecard - Packaging Corporation of America

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

33/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

2/5

Diluted EPS: $11.03 (2022), $8.48 (2023), $8.93 (2024), $8.58 (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

ROE Trend

4/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 27.9% (2022), 19.0% (2023), 18.2% (2024), 16.7% (2025). Median 18.6%, lowest 16.7%; the framework scores a median 15-20% as 4.

ROIC

3/5

ROIC of 11.4%: operating income of $1.11B divided by $9.71B of capital (total assets $10.73B minus current liabilities $1.02B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.

Profit Margins

3/5

Net margin of 7.3%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 21.4%, operating margin 13.1%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

3/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.94; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $4.40B, total cash $593.80M).

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $670.80M (2022), $845.40M (2023), $521.50M (2024), $728.60M (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $3.19B (2022), $3.45B (2023), $3.78B (2024), $3.93B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $7.69 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.6) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $72.94. Current price $236.00; price is 223.6% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $4.859, stage 1 growth = 7.3% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $22.56, PV of terminal value = $63.15, DCF value = $85.71. Current price $236.00; price is 175.3% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

1/5

Graham value $72.94 (price is 223.6% above the model value); DCF value $85.71 (price is 175.3% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

2/5

P/B of 4.48; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 6 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 10.9%, highest 19.9%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 20.6% and 24.7% over 10 years (a range of 4.1 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

As of December 31, 2025, we were the third largest producer of containerboard products in North America, according to industry sources and our own estimates. According to industry sources, corrugated products are produced by about 370 U.S. companies operating approximately 1,080 plants. The primary basis for competition for most of our packaging products includes quality, service, price, product design, and

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $2.57B paid out against $2.77B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $2.79B to $4.36B, up 56.3%, 2.5x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.09B to 0.09B, down 0.5% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $7.69, g = 0.6%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $72.94
    Current price $236.00 vs Graham value $72.94 — price is 223.6% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $4.859
    Stage 1 growth = 7.3% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $5.214 → PV $4.740
      Y2: $5.595 → PV $4.624
      Y3: $6.003 → PV $4.510
      Y4: $6.441 → PV $4.399
      Y5: $6.911 → PV $4.291
    Stage 1 PV sum = $22.56
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $101.70
    PV of terminal value = $63.15
    DCF value = $85.71
    Current price $236.00 vs DCF value $85.71 — price is 175.3% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $236.00. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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PKG · Packaging Corporation of America

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