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Research · S&P 500 · Consumer Discretionary
RCL · Royal Caribbean Group
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence
39/55
moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (Margin of Safety) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.
Earnings & returns
EPS Trend
5/5Diluted EPS: -$8.45 (2022), $6.31 (2023), $11.00 (2024), $15.61 (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
ROE Trend
5/5ROE (net income / common equity): -75.1% (2022), 35.9% (2023), 38.0% (2024), 42.5% (2025). Median 37.0%, lowest -75.1%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.
ROIC
4/5ROIC of 16.6%: operating income of $4.91B divided by $29.56B of capital (total assets $41.62B minus current liabilities $12.05B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 15-20% as 4.
Profit Margins
5/5Net margin of 23.5%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 50.3%, operating margin 27.1%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
2/5Debt-to-equity of 2.25; the framework scores 1.5-2.5 as 2 (total debt $23.52B, total cash $876.00M).
Free Cash Flow
4/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): -$2.23B (2022), $580.00M (2023), $2.00B (2024), $1.24B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.
Retained Earnings
5/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$1.71B (2022), -$10.00M (2023), $2.61B (2024), $5.92B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Valuation models
Graham IV
5/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $16.20 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $768.24 (EPS CAGR 57.3% capped at 20%). Current price $277.68; price is 63.9% below the model value.
DCF Value
1/5Free cash flow per share is -$5.67; a two-stage DCF cannot be computed from negative free cash flow.
Margin of Safety
Not scoredNeeds both a Graham value and a DCF value. Graham value $768.24 (price is 63.9% below the model value); DCF value N/A (not comparable).
Price-to-Book
1/5P/B of 7.26; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 2 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -16.5%, highest 16.6%.
Gross margin, each year
Between -78.8% and 49.4% over 10 years (a range of 128.2 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026
We compete within the global vacation industry primarily with a number of cruise lines as well as land-based vacation alternatives for consumers’ leisure time. These include resorts (including all-inclusive resorts), hotels, internet-based alternative lodging sites, theme parks, sports, nature and sightseeing destinations. Our principal cruise competitors are Carnival Corporation & plc, which owns, among other brands, Aida Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard Line, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises, Princess Cruises and Seabourn; Disney Cruise Line; MSC Cruises; Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd, which owns Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises; Viking, and Virgin Voyages.
The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
2/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in 2 of 4 years (fail); $2.09B paid out against $1.58B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $23.99B to $22.04B, down 8.2%, 3.1x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.26B to 0.27B, up 5.9% (fail: up more than 2%). 1 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 2.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $16.20, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 57.3%)
IV = $768.24
Current price $277.68 vs Graham value $768.24 — price is 63.9% below the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share -$5.669 — a two-stage DCF cannot be computed from negative free cash flow.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $277.68. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice
In the news
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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.