ROK Value Scorecard - Rockwell Automation

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

34/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

2/5

Diluted EPS: $7.97 (2022), $11.95 (2023), $8.28 (2024), $7.67 (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 34.1% (2022), 38.8% (2023), 27.1% (2024), 23.7% (2025). Median 30.6%, lowest 23.7%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 21.9%: operating income of $1.70B divided by $7.77B of capital (total assets $11.22B minus current liabilities $3.44B), fiscal year to Sep 30, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 13.4%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 49.1%, operating margin 21.0%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

3/5

Debt-to-equity of 1.03; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $3.61B, total cash $479.00M).

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $682.00M (2022), $1.21B (2023), $639.00M (2024), $1.36B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

2/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $8.41B (2022), $9.26B (2023), $9.63B (2024), $5.42B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $10.68 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $88.76 (EPS CAGR -19.9% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $426.23; price is 380.2% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $11.741, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -4.0% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $44.51, PV of terminal value = $107.27, DCF value = $151.78. Current price $426.23; price is 180.8% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

1/5

Graham value $88.76 (price is 380.2% above the model value); DCF value $151.78 (price is 180.8% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 13.55; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 10 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 16.7%, highest 34.9%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 40.0% and 48.8% over 10 years (a range of 8.8 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Nov 12, 2025

Our competitors range from large, diversified corporations that may also have business interests outside of industrial automation to smaller companies that offer a limited portfolio of industrial automation products, solutions, and services. Factors that influence our competitive position include the breadth and performance of our product, solution and services portfolio, technology differentiation, industry and

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $3.86B paid out against $3.89B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $4.18B to $3.65B, down 12.8%, 2.6x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.12B to 0.11B, down 2.4% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $10.68, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
    g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -19.9%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
    IV = $88.76
    Current price $426.23 vs Graham value $88.76 — price is 380.2% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $11.741
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -4.0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $11.741 → PV $10.674
      Y2: $11.741 → PV $9.704
      Y3: $11.741 → PV $8.822
      Y4: $11.741 → PV $8.020
      Y5: $11.741 → PV $7.291
    Stage 1 PV sum = $44.51
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $172.77
    PV of terminal value = $107.27
    DCF value = $151.78
    Current price $426.23 vs DCF value $151.78 — price is 180.8% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $426.23. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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