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Research · S&P 500 · Consumer Staples
SJM · J.M. Smucker Company
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence
28/60
low-moderate value scoreEarnings & returns
EPS Trend
1/5Diluted EPS: -$0.86 (2023), $7.13 (2024), -$11.57 (2025), -$1.30 (2026). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.
ROE Trend
1/5ROE (net income / common equity): -1.3% (2023), 9.7% (2024), -20.2% (2025), -2.5% (2026). Median -1.9%, lowest -20.2%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.
ROIC
1/5ROIC of 2.6%: operating income of $360.20M divided by $13.68B of capital (total assets $16.22B minus current liabilities $2.54B), fiscal year to Apr 30, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.
Profit Margins
2/5Net margin of 2.5%; the framework scores 0-5% as 2; gross margin 38.0%, operating margin 17.9%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
3/5Debt-to-equity of 1.21; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $6.94B, total cash $43.20M).
Free Cash Flow
4/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $717.00M (2023), $642.90M (2024), $816.60M (2025), $1.16B (2026). It rose every year but one and ended above 2023; the framework scores that as 4.
Retained Earnings
1/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $2.13B (2023), $2.19B (2024), $501.80M (2025), -$101.30M (2026). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.
Valuation models
Graham IV
1/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $2.14 x (8.5 + 2 x 5.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $38.71 (EPS CAGR unavailable, default 5% applied). Current price $127.43; price is 229.2% above the model value.
DCF Value
5/5FCF/share = $13.708, stage 1 growth = 5.2% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $60.07, PV of terminal value = $161.37, DCF value = $221.45. Current price $127.43; price is 42.5% below the model value.
Margin of Safety
3/5Graham value $38.71 (price is 229.2% above the model value); DCF value $221.45 (price is 42.5% below the model value).
Price-to-Book
3/5P/B of 2.37; the framework scores 1.5-3.0 as 3.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2017-2026); lowest -4.5%, highest 10.3%.
Gross margin, each year
Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Jun 9, 2026
Our business is highly competitive as all of our brands compete with other branded products as well as private label products. In order to remain competitive, companies in the food industry need to consider emerging consumer preferences, technological advances, product and packaging innovations, and the growth of certain retail channels, such as the e-commerce market. The primary ways in which products and brands are distinguished include brand recognition, product quality, price, packaging, new product introductions, nutritional value, convenience, advertising, promotion, and the ability to identify and satisfy consumer preferences. Positive factors pertaining to our competitive position include well-recognized brands, high-quality products, consumer trust, experienced brand and category management, varied product offerings, product innovation, responsive customer service, and an integrated distribution network. The packaged foods industry has been challenged by a general long-term decline in sales volume in the center of the store. Certain evolving consumer trends have contributed to the longer-term decline, such as a heightened focus on health and wellness, an increased desire for fresh foods, and the growing impact of social media and e-commerce on consumer behavior. To address these dynamics, we continue to focus on innovation with an increased emphasis on products that satisfy evolving consumer trends.
The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
3/5Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $2.54B paid out against $3.33B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $4.42B to $7.09B, up 60.2%, 8.1x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.10B to 0.11B, up 2.2% (fail: up more than 2%). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $2.14, g = 5.0%, Y = 4.5
IV = $38.71
Current price $127.43 vs Graham value $38.71 — price is 229.2% above the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $13.708
Stage 1 growth = 5.2% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Y1: $14.421 → PV $13.110
Y2: $15.171 → PV $12.538
Y3: $15.960 → PV $11.991
Y4: $16.790 → PV $11.467
Y5: $17.663 → PV $10.967
Stage 1 PV sum = $60.07
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $259.89
PV of terminal value = $161.37
DCF value = $221.45
Current price $127.43 vs DCF value $221.45 — price is 42.5% below the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $127.43. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice
In the news
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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.