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Research · S&P 500 · Information Technology

SMCI · Supermicro

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

Price · last 3 months · daily close

SMCI price

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Daily closing prices via yfinance. Quotes are delayed. Past prices are not a guarantee of future results.

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence

35/55
moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored

11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (Margin of Safety) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: $1.14 (2023), $2.01 (2024), $1.68 (2025), $3.26 (2026). It rose every year but one and ended above 2023; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 32.5% (2023), 21.3% (2024), 16.6% (2025), 21.4% (2026). Median 21.3%, lowest 16.6%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

3/5

ROIC of 12.2%: operating income of $2.77B divided by $22.79B of capital (total assets $29.95B minus current liabilities $7.16B), fiscal year to Jun 30, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.

Profit Margins

3/5

Net margin of 5.7%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 10.8%, operating margin 13.4%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

4/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.64; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $9.26B, total cash $7.54B).

Free Cash Flow

1/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $626.79M (2023), -$2.61B (2024), $1.53B (2025), -$6.97B (2026). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $1.43B (2023), $2.59B (2024), $3.43B (2025), $5.65B (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $3.26 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $154.60 (EPS CAGR 27.4% capped at 20%). Current price $31.63; price is 79.5% below the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

Free cash flow per share is -$12.75; a two-stage DCF cannot be computed from negative free cash flow.

Margin of Safety

Not scored

Needs both a Graham value and a DCF value. Graham value $154.60 (price is 79.5% below the model value); DCF value N/A (not comparable).

Price-to-Book

3/5

P/B of 2.03; the framework scores 1.5-3.0 as 3.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 3 of 10 years (2017-2026); lowest 7.1%, highest 33.1%.

2017: 11.3%, 2018: 9.9%, 2019: 9.0%, 2020: 7.1%, 2021: 9.7%, 2022: 19.3%, 2023: 33.1%, 2024: 16.2%, 2025: 10.7%, 2026: 12.2%

Gross margin, each year

Between 10.8% and 18.0% over 10 years (a range of 7.2 points).

2017: 14.1%, 2018: 12.8%, 2019: 14.2%, 2020: 15.8%, 2021: 15.0%, 2022: 15.4%, 2023: 18.0%, 2024: 13.8%, 2025: 11.1%, 2026: 10.8%

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Aug 31, 2026

The market for our products is highly competitive, rapidly evolving and subject to new technological developments, changing customer needs and new product introductions. In addition, we also face competition from smaller vendors that specialize in the sale of server components and systems. In recent years, we have experienced increased competition from original design manufacturers (“ODMs”) that benefit from their

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

1/5

Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in 3 of 4 years (fail); $350.99M paid out against -$7.42B of free cash flow (fail: free cash flow was negative); total debt $290.30M to $8.76B, up 2917.9%, 2.8x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.53B to 0.66B, up 24.2% (fail: up more than 2%). 0 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 1.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $3.26, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 27.4%)
    IV = $154.60
    Current price $31.63 vs Graham value $154.60 — price is 79.5% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share -$12.752 — a two-stage DCF cannot be computed from negative free cash flow.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $31.63. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.