SNDK Value Scorecard - Sandisk

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

41/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

1/5

Diluted EPS: -$14.78 (2023), -$4.63 (2024), -$11.32 (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.

ROE Trend

1/5

ROE (net income / common equity): -6.1% (2024), -17.8% (2025), 72.7% (2026). Median -6.1%, lowest -17.8%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 73.2%: operating income of $12.39B divided by $16.93B of capital (total assets $22.51B minus current liabilities $5.58B), fiscal year to Jul 3, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 56.5%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 71.5%, operating margin 78.5%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Net cash: total debt $201.00M, total cash $4.76B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.

Free Cash Flow

5/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): -$932.00M (2023), -$475.00M (2024), -$120.00M (2025), $11.49B (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Retained Earnings

4/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $0 (2024), -$1.78B (2025), $9.65B (2026). It rose every year but one and ended above 2024; the framework scores that as 4.

Valuation models

Graham IV

3/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $73.76 x (8.5 + 2 x 5.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $1,334.24 (EPS CAGR unavailable, default 5% applied). Current price $1,299.30; price is 2.6% below the model value.

DCF Value

4/5

FCF/share = $53.421, stage 1 growth = 20.0% (revenue CAGR 74.3% capped at 20%) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $349.41, PV of terminal value = $1,214.50, DCF value = $1,563.91. Current price $1,299.30; price is 16.9% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $1,334.24 (price is 2.6% below the model value); DCF value $1,563.91 (price is 16.9% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 12.30; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 1 of 3 years (2024-2026); lowest -11.9%, highest 73.2%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 7.1% and 71.5% over 4 years (a range of 64.4 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Aug 17, 2026

Our industry is highly competitive. We believe we are well positioned with our leading flash product portfolio, premium consumer brand, differentiated semiconductor innovation engine and leadership in driving cost efficiency. Nevertheless, we face strong competition from other manufacturers of flash in the Datacenter, Edge and Consumer end markets. We compete with vertically-integrated suppliers such as Kioxia,

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in 1 of 4 years (fail); $4.52B paid out against $9.97B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $985.00M to $177.00M, down 82.0%, 0.0x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); share count not available. 2 of 3 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $73.76, g = 5.0%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $1,334.24
    Current price $1,299.30 vs Graham value $1,334.24 — price is 2.6% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $53.421
    Stage 1 growth = 20.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g capped at 20.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was 74.3%)
      Y1: $64.106 → PV $58.278
      Y2: $76.927 → PV $63.576
      Y3: $92.312 → PV $69.356
      Y4: $110.775 → PV $75.661
      Y5: $132.930 → PV $82.539
    Stage 1 PV sum = $349.41
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $1,955.97
    PV of terminal value = $1,214.50
    DCF value = $1,563.91
    Current price $1,299.30 vs DCF value $1,563.91 — price is 16.9% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $1299.30. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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